My Forex Market Journal - Watching the Pairs Day by Day

EUR/USD – Euro Pushing Higher Ahead of ECBEUR/USD is trading around 1.1630-1.1635 today, with the pair continuing to hold above the 1.16 area. After spending the last few sessions moving sideways, we're starting to see a little more upside pressure.

The move isn't dramatic, but the euro is getting some support ahead of the ECB decision tomorrow. Markets are widely expecting a 25bp hike, so the bigger question may be how the ECB talks about the outlook rather than the rate move itself.

For now, 1.1650 looks like the next area I'd want to see price clear. A clean break could give the pair room to test 1.1700. On the downside, I'm still watching 1.1600 as the level that would bring the recent consolidation back into focus.

There are also bigger macro risks in the background. Oil is pushing above $100, which is keeping inflation concerns elevated, while the market is already looking ahead to U.S. CPI on Friday and next week's Fed decision.

For now, the euro looks a little stronger than it did yesterday but I wouldn't call this a breakout yet. Tomorrow's ECB decision could be what finally gives EUR/USD some direction.

EUR/USD - Back Under Pressure Around 1.1600

EUR/USD is back around 1.1600 today after slipping following the ECB decision. The ECB delivered the expected 25 bp hike to 2.50%, but the move was already largely priced in, so it didn't give the euro much of a boost.

What stands out to me now is how quickly price has come back toward the 1.1600 area. This was the level I was watching earlier in the week, and it’s becoming important again.

The dollar is getting some support from higher U.S. yields and the latest inflation picture. August PPI rose 0.4%, matching expectations, while the 10-year Treasury yield has moved close to 5%. Markets are now pricing roughly a 70% chance of a 25 bp Fed hike next week.

For EUR/USD, I’m watching 1.1600 closely. If it holds, the pair could still stay within the recent range. If sellers push through it with some conviction, 1.1550 becomes the next area I'd be watching.

The big number today is U.S. CPI, so I wouldn't read too much into the move around 1.1600 before that release.

For now, the euro has lost some of the strength it showed earlier this week. The reaction to CPI should give us a much better idea of whether this is just another pullback or the start of a deeper move.

EUR/USD - Dollar Strength Is Starting to Show

EUR/USD is back around 1.157-1.158 today, and the tone feels quite different from earlier last week. The pair has slipped below the 1.1600 area and is now trading around a four-week low.

The big change is the dollar. After the latest U.S. inflation data, expectations for a 25 bp Fed hike this week have jumped sharply, with markets pricing the move at around 86-87%. Rising oil prices are also keeping inflation concerns alive.

From a technical point of view, I’m watching how EUR/USD behaves around 1.1550-1.1600 now. If the pair can't reclaim 1.1600, the recent downside momentum could continue. If buyers manage to get back above it, the move lower may start looking more like a pullback.

The interesting part is that the Fed decision is now only two days away. With the ECB already having raised rates last week, the focus has clearly shifted toward what the Fed does and, probably more importantly, what it signals about the next few meetings.

For now, I’m not trying to pick a bottom. I’m watching whether 1.1550 holds or 1.1600 gets reclaimed. That should tell us more than trying to predict the move ahead of the Fed.

EUR/USD - Waiting for the Fed

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1540-1.1550 today, so the 1.1600 level that I was watching last week has clearly given way.

The pair has been under pressure as the dollar continues to strengthen. With oil back above $100 and U.S. 10-year yields moving above 5%, the market is increasingly focused on inflation and what that means for the Fed.

What makes today interesting is that the Fed decision is tomorrow. Markets are now pricing a very high probability of a 25 bp hike, but for EUR/USD, I think the bigger reaction could come from the Fed's guidance on what happens after this meeting.

Technically, I’m watching 1.1500 now. If that area holds, we could see some reaction back toward 1.1550-1.1600. If sellers push through it, the downside could start opening up further.

For now, I don't really want to guess what happens tomorrow. EUR/USD has already made a decent move lower, so I'm more interested in seeing how price reacts around 1.1500 and then reassessing after the Fed.

Tomorrow should be much more interesting.

EUR/USD - Fed Day

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1540 today, and the 1.1600 area that was holding earlier this month now feels quite far away. The pair has been under steady pressure as the dollar has strengthened into today's Fed decision.

The interesting part is that the rate decision itself isn't much of a surprise anymore. Markets are pricing a 25 bp hike, with 93% odds ahead of the decision. The bigger question for me is what the Fed says about the path from here, especially with oil prices above $100 and U.S. inflation still elevated.

Technically, 1.1500 is now the level I'm watching below. EUR/USD has been sitting just above it, so a clean break would change the short-term picture. On the other side, getting back above 1.1600 would at least take some pressure off the pair.

I'm not expecting the pre-Fed price action to tell us much. The real move could come after the statement and the rate projections, so I'm more interested in seeing where EUR/USD settles after the initial volatility.

For now, 1.1500-1.1600 is the range I'm watching. Today should give us a much clearer idea of which side eventually takes control.

EUR/USD - Dollar Takes Control After the Fed

EUR/USD has taken another step lower today, trading around 1.1460 after dropping below the 1.1500 area.

The Fed's 25 bp hike yesterday wasn't really a surprise, but the reaction afterwards was interesting. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled that another hike could still come later this year. That was enough to give the dollar another push higher.

For EUR/USD, the move below 1.1500 changes the short-term picture for me. The pair had been trying to hold that area earlier in the week, but sellers have now pushed through it.

I'm watching how price behaves around 1.1450-1.1500 now. If EUR/USD stays below 1.1500, the recent selling pressure could continue. If it manages to reclaim the level, I'd want to see whether that is a real recovery or just a bounce after the Fed move.

I also don't want to chase the move lower just because the dollar is strong today. After a move like this, I'd rather see where the pair settles and whether sellers can actually maintain control.

The next thing I'm watching is how the market digests the Fed decision over the next couple of sessions. The initial reaction is one thing. Holding the move is another.

EUR/USD - Trying to Recover 1.1500

EUR/USD is back around 1.1490 today after dropping as low as roughly 1.1460 yesterday. So far, it looks more like a bounce than a clear reversal.

The interesting part is how price behaves around 1.1500. EUR/USD broke below that level after the Fed, so I'd want to see buyers actually reclaim it and hold above it before getting too interested in the upside.

The Fed's hawkish tone is still in the background, but some of the immediate dollar strength has eased. Treasury yields have pulled back from their highs and oil prices have also come off, which has given EUR/USD a little room to recover.

There’s also an interesting development on the ECB side. ECB Vice President Boris Vujčić said today that policymakers shouldn't focus too heavily on energy prices alone when thinking about future rate hikes. The ECB raised rates to 2.50% last week, but has said future decisions will remain data-dependent.

For now, I'm watching 1.1500 closely. If the pair gets back above it and stays there, the recent sell-off may start looking a little less convincing. If it gets rejected again, I’ll be watching whether 1.1460 comes back into play.

After the Fed move, I think the reaction around these levels is more interesting than trying to predict the next big move.

EUR/USD - Trying to Get Back Above 1.1500

EUR/USD is around 1.1485 today, so there’s been a small bounce after Friday’s close near 1.1476. Still, the pair hasn't managed to get back above 1.1500, which is the area I'm watching most closely.

The move lower last week came after the Fed raised rates by 25 bps and kept a relatively hawkish tone. That’s still sitting in the background and keeping some pressure on the euro.

For now, I'm not reading too much into this small bounce. If buyers can reclaim 1.1500 and hold above it, I’d be interested to see whether EUR/USD can start recovering toward the 1.1550 area. If 1.1500 keeps rejecting price, the recent lows around 1.1455-1.1460 come back into focus.

There’s also a bit of event risk today with ECB President Lagarde speaking, so it will be interesting to see whether her comments give the euro any fresh direction.

For now, I’m watching the reaction around 1.1500. The pair has bounced, but it hasn't really changed the bigger picture yet.

EUR/USD - Trying to Hold 1.1450

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1465-1.1470 today. After the sharp move lower following last week's Fed decision, the pair has started moving sideways, but there still isn't much evidence of a proper recovery yet.

For now, 1.1450 is the level I'm watching underneath. Price has managed to hold around that area so far, and the short-term momentum is looking a little stretched after the recent decline.

On the upside, 1.1500 is the first level I'd want to see reclaimed. Above that, the 1.1550-1.1575 area could become interesting. Until EUR/USD gets back above 1.1500, though, I think it's difficult to say the recent pressure has really eased.

The dollar is still getting support from expectations that the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer. At the same time, Fed officials are speaking today, so there could be some fresh volatility around the dollar.

I'm not looking to chase the move lower here. EUR/USD is already sitting close to 1.1450, so I'd rather see whether that level actually holds or sellers manage to push through it.

For now, 1.1450-1.1500 is the range I'm watching.

EUR/USD - 1.1450 Is Now Under Pressure

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1445 today, with the pair continuing to slide after yesterday's break below 1.1450.

The move has been pretty steady over the past week. EUR/USD was still around 1.1600 last Friday, and we're now down near the late-July lows. The dollar is getting support from expectations that U.S. rates could stay higher, while the euro is also dealing with softer Eurozone sentiment.

What I'm watching now is whether 1.1450 turns into resistance after acting as support. Price is already trading below it, so I'd rather see how it behaves around this level before reading too much into the next move.

Below here, the 1.1400 area is the next zone I'm keeping an eye on. On the other side, getting back above 1.1450 would at least give the pair some room to stabilise.

There is also some fresh data coming today, with preliminary PMI numbers from Germany, the eurozone and the U.S. due later. That could give EUR/USD another reason to move after what has already been a fairly directional week.

For now, I’m not looking to chase the move lower. I’m more interested in seeing whether 1.1450 is reclaimed or starts acting as resistance.

EUR/USD - Below 1.1400EUR/USD is around 1.1383 today, so the move lower has continued. Yesterday's break below 1.1450 turned into a much bigger move, with the pair now trading at its lowest level in roughly two months.

The dollar is getting another push from the U.S. side. A stronger-than-expected manufacturing reading has brought inflation concerns back into focus, while Treasury yields have moved higher. Several Fed officials have also kept the door open to further rate hikes if inflation stays elevated.

For EUR/USD, 1.1400 is the level I'm watching now. It was an important psychological level, and with price below it, I'd like to see whether it starts acting as resistance.

The next area I'm watching is around 1.1350, while a move back above 1.1400 would at least give the pair some room to stabilise.

I'm not looking to chase the sell-off here. The pair has already moved quite a distance in a short period, so I'm more interested in seeing what happens after the initial break.

For now, the question is pretty simple: can EUR/USD reclaim 1.1400 or does the level turn into resistance.

EUR/USD - Another Leg Lower

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1370 today, continuing the slide we've been watching all week. The pair is now at a roughly two-month low and is heading for its third straight weekly decline.

What stands out to me is that the move hasn't really shown much sign of slowing down yet. The dollar is getting support from the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, while stronger economic data and recent Fed comments have pushed expectations for another rate hike higher.

The pair has now moved a long way from the 1.1600 area we were watching earlier this month. At this point, I'm more interested in seeing where buyers actually step in rather than trying to call a bottom.

1.1350 is the next area I'm watching below. If EUR/USD can stabilise around there, we could see some kind of bounce. On the other hand, continued trading below 1.1400 would keep the short-term pressure firmly on the euro.

There isn't a major central-bank decision today, but several Fed officials are scheduled to speak, while U.S. Durable Goods Orders and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading are also due.

For now, I'm staying patient. After several consecutive down days, I don't want to chase the move just because the pair keeps falling. I'd rather see whether 1.1350 holds or whether EUR/USD starts building a base.

EUR/USD - Still Struggling Below 1.1400

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1385-1.1387 today, so there hasn't been much of a recovery after last week's move lower. Friday's close was around 1.1391, and the pair is still struggling to get back above the 1.1400 area.

What I'm watching now is the 20-day EMA around 1.1388-1.1391. Price is sitting right around that area, so it could be useful to see whether EUR/USD can get back above it and hold, or whether it continues to trade underneath.

The broader picture still isn't great for the euro. Several Fed officials have kept a hawkish tone, and markets are still considering the possibility of another rate hike. That has kept the dollar supported and made it difficult for EUR/USD to build a meaningful bounce.

For now, 1.1400 is the first level I'd like to see reclaimed. If that happens, the pair could get some breathing room. If sellers push it back below the recent 1.1368-1.1370 area, the downside could open up again.

There isn't a huge data release driving EUR/USD today, so I'm more interested in the price action itself. Can the pair reclaim 1.1400 or does the 1.1400 area continue to keep buyers away.

EUR/USD - Still Under Pressure Near 1.1360

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1360-1.1370 today, so the recovery we were looking for above 1.1400 hasn't really happened. The pair is now sitting close to its lowest levels in about three months.

What stands out to me is that the dollar is still getting support from the bond market. U.S. Treasury yields have pushed to multi-year highs, while oil has climbed back above $107. That combination is keeping inflation concerns alive and making the market think more about another Fed hike.

For EUR/USD, 1.1400 is still the level I'd want to see reclaimed before the recent selling pressure starts looking less convincing. Until then, the pair remains below the level it broke earlier this month.

Below the market, I'm watching the 1.1350 area. If that gives way, I'd rather wait for price to show where buyers are actually willing to step in instead of trying to call the bottom.

The next few days could be important as U.S. PCE inflation and jobs data arrive, giving the market more information about the Fed's next move.

For now, I'm keeping it simple: 1.1350 below and 1.1400 above. EUR/USD needs to show some strength before I'd call this anything more than a continued downtrend.

EUR/USD - Buyers Trying to Stabilise Near 1.1330

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1330-1.1340 today after yesterday's sharp move lower. Price briefly dropped to around 1.1311 before bouncing back, so there is at least some reaction around these levels.

The bigger picture is still quite different from where we started the month. EUR/USD has fallen from the 1.16 area and is now trading at its lowest level since May 2025. The dollar has been supported by higher U.S. yields and expectations that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer.

What I'm watching now is whether 1.1310-1.1330 can hold. Yesterday's low gives us a pretty clear reference point. If buyers can keep price above that area, we could see EUR/USD spend some time consolidating after the recent sell-off.

On the other side, a sustained break below 1.1310 would put the pair into fresh territory, so I'd rather see how price behaves there before trying to anticipate the next move.

There's also a lot of macro data coming up, particularly U.S. core PCE inflation and the jobs report, which could have a big say in expectations for the Fed's next move.

For now, I'm more interested in whether EUR/USD can actually build a base around 1.1310-1.1330 than trying to call the bottom after such a strong decline.

EUR/USD - Trying to Find a Floor Around 1.1330

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1330 today after another weak September. The pair has now fallen roughly 2.5% over the month, with yesterday’s low around 1.1323.

What stands out to me is that the selling pressure hasn't really disappeared, but the pair is getting quite stretched. EUR/USD has been making lower lows for several sessions, and the 1.1310-1.1320 area is now the first zone I'm watching closely.

The dollar is still getting support from higher U.S. Treasury yields, even though the latest U.S. inflation data reduced some expectations for another Fed hike this month. At the same time, stronger eurozone inflation is keeping the ECB side interesting.

From here, I'd like to see whether EUR/USD can actually stabilise around 1.1320-1.1330. A move back above 1.1400 would be more convincing that buyers are starting to regain some ground.

For now, I'm not trying to call a bottom. After such a persistent move lower, I'm more interested in seeing whether price can build a base before making the next move.

EUR/USD - A Much Bigger Break Below 1.13

EUR/USD looks very different from where we left it last week. The pair fell as low as 1.1161 today before recovering slightly, putting it at its weakest level since May 2025.

The big change isn't just the dollar side anymore. France's fiscal situation and political uncertainty are putting fresh pressure on the euro. The spread between French and German 10-year yields has moved above 150 basis points, adding to concerns that the pressure could spread across European markets.

Technically, the 1.13 area has clearly been lost, so I'm not treating it as support anymore. If EUR/USD manages to bounce, 1.1250-1.1275 is the first area I'd watch, followed by 1.1300. A move back above 1.13 would at least make the recent breakdown look less convincing.

Below today's low, 1.1150 is the next level I'm keeping an eye on. A sustained break there would leave 1.1080 as the next area on the chart.

What's also interesting is that the latest U.S. jobs data has actually reduced expectations for an October Fed hike. So this week's euro weakness isn't simply another Fed-hawkish-dollar story. For now, the bigger question is whether the French fiscal concerns remain strong enough to keep sellers in control.

After such a sharp move, I'm more interested in seeing where EUR/USD stabilises than trying to chase the decline.