My Forex Market Journal - Watching the Pairs Day by Day

EUR/USD - The Bounce Has Something to Prove

EUR/USD is back around 1.1210 today after Monday's sharp drop to 1.1161. Tuesday brought a decent bounce, but price is already struggling to hold above 1.12.

I'm watching 1.1200 closely now. It has become an important short-term area after the recent sell-off. If buyers can keep EUR/USD above it, there is room for the bounce to test 1.1250-1.1275.

But I don't want to read too much into one recovery day. The bigger trend is still weak, and the pair remains well below the 1.13 area it broke earlier this month. A move back above 1.13 would be much more convincing to me than simply bouncing from 1.1160.

The dollar is still getting support from rising oil prices and higher U.S. yields. Brent has moved back above $100, while markets are also waiting for the Fed's September meeting minutes for more clues on the rate outlook.

On the euro side, the French fiscal situation is still something I'm keeping in mind. French bond yields remain elevated, although some of the recent pressure eased as the week started.

So for now, I'm keeping the chart fairly simple: 1.1200 below, 1.1250-1.1275 above, and 1.13 as the bigger level. I'd rather see which side actually holds before assuming this bounce is the start of something bigger.

EUR/USD - Back Near the 1.1160 Low

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1190 today after Wednesday's selling pushed it close to the 1.1160 low from Monday. The bounce we saw earlier in the week didn't last very long, and the pair is once again testing the lower end of the recent range.

The 1.1160 area is the level I'm watching most closely now. It has already held once, so I want to see how price behaves if EUR/USD tests it again. A clean break below it would put 1.1100 on my radar, with 1.1060-1.1070 another area to watch further down.

On the other side, 1.1200 is the immediate level I'd like to see reclaimed. Above that, 1.1250 could give the bounce more room, but I wouldn't consider the broader trend changed unless EUR/USD starts recovering toward the 1.13 area.

The dollar is still finding support even though expectations for an October Fed hike have fallen. The September Fed minutes showed that most policymakers still saw another rate increase as appropriate later this year, while inflation remains a concern.

For the euro, the French fiscal situation remains a problem. French-German bond yield spreads have widened again, keeping pressure on the single currency.

There isn't much I want to predict here. 1.1160 is the key line below, 1.1200 is the first level above. I'm watching which one gives way before deciding whether this is another leg lower or the start of a more meaningful bounce.

EUR/USD - The Bounce Is Holding, but There's More to Prove

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1230 today after recovering from Monday's low near 1.1161. The pair has moved higher over the past few sessions, although it is still heading for a fifth consecutive weekly decline.

What stands out to me is that some of the pressure on the dollar has eased. U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back, and lower energy prices have helped calm some inflation concerns. At the same time, France's fiscal problems haven't disappeared, so the euro still has its own challenges.

On the chart, 1.1200 is the first area I'm watching now. EUR/USD has moved back above it, and I'd like to see whether buyers can keep price there. If the recovery continues, 1.1250-1.1280 is the next area I'm watching.

On the downside, a move back below 1.1200 would weaken this recovery. Monday's low around 1.1160 remains the key level below; a break there would suggest sellers are regaining control.

For now, I'm not treating this bounce as a confirmed reversal. I'd like to see EUR/USD hold above 1.1200 and make progress toward 1.1250 before changing my view on the recent downtrend.

EUR/USD - Trying to Hold Above 1.1200

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1210 today after recovering slightly from Friday's close near 1.1202. The pair is holding above the psychological 1.1200 level for now, but the broader trend remains weak after several weeks of selling pressure.

What stands out to me is that the dollar is still holding near an 18-month high. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping demand for the dollar firm, while markets are waiting for Wednesday's U.S. inflation report for clues about the Fed's next move.

On the chart, 1.1200 is the first area I'm watching. If EUR/USD can stay above it, the pair may get room to test 1.1240-1.1250. But I want to see price hold those gains rather than assume the recent bounce will continue.

On the downside, a move below 1.1180 would bring the recent lows back into focus. The key level remains around 1.1160, where the pair found buyers last week. A break below that area would put the euro under fresh pressure.

For now, I'm not treating this as a reversal. I'd like to see EUR/USD hold above 1.1200 and push toward 1.1250 before becoming more confident about a recovery. Wednesday's U.S. CPI report could be the next major catalyst for the pair.

EUR/USD - Buyers Are Trying to Push Back Above 1.1200

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1180 today after slipping toward the 1.1150 area earlier this week. The pair is showing a modest recovery as the dollar gives back some gains, but it is still struggling to move decisively above the 1.1200 level.

What stands out to me today is the change in the dollar's momentum. Oil prices have eased and U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back, giving the euro some breathing room. However, concerns about France's fiscal position are still weighing on the single currency, so I'm not ready to call this a proper reversal.

On the chart, 1.1200-1.1220 is the first area I'm watching. EUR/USD needs to get above this zone and hold there to make the recovery look more convincing. If that happens, the next area I'd watch is around 1.1325-1.1355.

On the downside, 1.1160 remains the important level. If sellers push the pair below last week's low, 1.1100 could come into focus, with further downside risk toward 1.1000 if selling pressure continues.

For now, I'm watching whether EUR/USD can reclaim 1.1200-1.1220 or turns lower again.

EUR/USD - Hotter U.S. Inflation Could Put the Euro Under Pressure

EUR/USD was trading around 1.1200 before the U.S. CPI release, but the latest inflation numbers have shifted attention back to the dollar. U.S. inflation rose to 3.7% year on year in September, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% expected.

The main thing I'm taking from this report is that inflation isn't cooling as quickly as hoped. Higher fuel prices appear to be a major reason for the increase, but the market will also be watching whether the pressure spreads beyond energy. A hotter reading could make it harder for the Fed to consider easing its stance, which may support the dollar.

On the chart, 1.1200 remains the first level I'm watching. If EUR/USD struggles to hold above it, the recent low around 1.1150-1.1160 could come back into focus. A break below that zone would suggest sellers are still in control.

On the upside, I'd like to see the pair reclaim 1.1220-1.1250 and hold there. That would give the recovery more substance, although it wouldn't erase the broader downtrend on its own.

For now, I'm watching how the market see the CPI news rather than assuming the dollar will strengthen immediately.

EUR/USD - Rebounding After the CPI Sell-Off

EUR/USD has bounced back toward 1.1220 today after yesterday's hotter than expected U.S. inflation data briefly pushed the dollar higher. The pair has recovered from its recent 18-month low as U.S. Treasury yields pull back and markets reassess the chances of another Fed rate hike this month.

What stands out to me is that the CPI report initially supported the dollar, but the move hasn't lasted. U.S. headline inflation rose to 3.7% year on year, while core inflation reached 2.6%. Despite the numbers, cautious comments from Fed officials have eased some expectations for an immediate rate increase.

On the chart, 1.1200 is the first area I'm watching. EUR/USD has moved back above it, and holding there could give buyers room to test 1.1250. I'd like to see the pair maintain that recovery rather than treat one strong session as a confirmed reversal.

On the downside, a move back below 1.1200 would weaken the rebound. The recent low around 1.1100-1.1120 remains the wider area to keep in mind if selling pressure returns.

The focus now shifts to U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data, along with further comments from Fed officials. These could change expectations for interest rates and give the dollar a fresh direction.

For now, I'm watching whether EUR/USD can hold above 1.1200 and make progress toward 1.1250. The rebound is encouraging, but I'd like to see more follow-through before deciding that the broader downtrend is losing its grip.

EUR/USD - French Unrest Is Putting Pressure Back on the Euro

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1230 today after pulling back from Friday's recovery. The pair has bounced from its recent low near 1.1113, but it's struggling to build much momentum. Fresh political uncertainty in France isn't helping the euro either.

What I'm noticing is that the euro has its own problems to deal with right now. Concerns around France's political situation and public finances are back in focus, so even when the dollar eases, EUR/USD isn't finding it easy to push higher.

On the chart, 1.1200 is the level I'm keeping an eye on. If price holds above it, I'd like to see whether buyers can push the pair toward 1.1250-1.1270. That would be a decent sign that the recovery still has some life in it.

If 1.1200 gives way, though, I'll be watching 1.1150 next. Below that, the recent low around 1.1113 comes back into the picture. After the sharp drop we've seen, I don't want to assume the bottom is in just because price has bounced.

For now, I'm keeping it simple: can EUR/USD stay above 1.1200, or are sellers getting ready to push it lower again? I'd rather see how price reacts around that level than try to guess the next move.

EUR/USD - Buyers Are Holding the 1.1200 Area

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1230 today, recovering a little after yesterday's dip toward 1.1180. Buyers have managed to push the pair back above 1.1200, but there's still work to do before I'd call this a proper recovery.

What I'm watching is whether the euro can hold up despite the headlines coming out of France. Political unrest and concerns over the government's budget are keeping pressure on French bond markets. The dollar, meanwhile, has picked up slightly after a couple of softer sessions.

On the chart, 1.1200 is the level I'd like to see hold. If buyers can defend it, the next test is around 1.1250-1.1270. A break above that zone would give the recovery a bit more credibility.

If EUR/USD slips back below 1.1200, I'll be watching Monday's low near 1.1180, followed by the bigger support area around 1.1110-1.1160. That's where I'd want to see how buyers react rather than assume the pair will bounce again.

For now, I am seeing if EUR/USD build on this move above 1.1200 or will the pressure from France pull it back down. I'd like to see price make a convincing push toward 1.1250 before getting too optimistic about the recovery.

EUR/USD - Struggling to Push Beyond 1.1250

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1220 today, pulling back slightly after failing to hold its recent recovery above 1.1250. The pair is still consolidating above 1.1200, but buyers haven't managed to build enough momentum to push it clearly higher.

What I'm noticing is that the euro is still having trouble shaking off the pressure from France. Concerns about the country's fiscal outlook and renewed protests are weighing on sentiment. The dollar has also found some support from rising oil prices and renewed demand for safe-haven assets amid Middle East tensions.

On the chart, 1.1200 is the level I'm watching below. EUR/USD has been holding above it, so a clean break lower would be worth paying attention to. If that happens, 1.1150 is the next area I'd watch, followed by the recent low around 1.1113.

On the upside, 1.1250-1.1275 is the zone buyers need to clear. The pair has struggled to sustain a move above this area, and until that changes, I'd be cautious about treating the recent bounce as a proper reversal. A break above it could open the way toward 1.1325.

For now, I'm watching whether EUR/USD can stay above 1.1200 or makes another attempt at 1.1250-1.1275. The pair is trying to stabilise, but I'd like to see buyers actually take control before changing my view.

EUR/USD - Buyers Need to Clear 1.1275

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1235 today. The recovery from 1.1110 has been encouraging, but the pair is struggling to make much progress above 1.1250. For now, buyers are keeping it afloat, but they haven't taken control yet.

The dollar has lost some ground recently, which has helped EUR/USD recover. But France is becoming a real problem for the euro, with borrowing costs rising and budget concerns keeping investors nervous. So even with a softer dollar, the upside hasn't been easy.

1.1275 is the level I'd like to see broken. If buyers get through it and hold, the recovery could extend toward 1.1340–1.1360. A rejection here, though, could leave the pair stuck in its current range.

Below, I'm watching 1.1200, followed by 1.1155. If price starts slipping back toward those levels, the recovery may be running out of steam. The bigger line in the sand remains around 1.1110-1.1130.

With preliminary PMI data due Friday and the Fed and ECB meetings next week, there are a few things that could move the pair. For now, I'm watching whether buyers can finally push through 1.1275 rather than assuming the bounce will continue.