Technical Outlook on GBP/USD, EUR/USD, GOLD

• Gold  falls after hawkish Fed; US Core PCE could dictate the next move
• Dollar dominance drags EUR/USD to three-month lows; Flash PMIs to gauge economic momentum
• GBP/USD steadies as leadership transition boosts stability expectations

US PCE Price Index → GOLD

The weekly US calendar features the US core PCE data for May on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Following a hawkish FOMC policy meeting that prioritized price stability over economic growth and revived expectations for at least one rate hike by the end of the year, investors will be watching for further evidence that could justify a shift back toward monetary tightening. This comes after the temporary US-Iran peace deal removed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The data is expected to show a faster annual increase of 4.0% y/y, up from 3.8% previously, while the core measure, which strips out volatile components, is forecast to edge higher to 3.4% y/y from 3.3%.

Gold could face additional pressure if the figures support the hawkish narrative, unless it reclaims its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) at 4,274 and then breaks above the short-term descending trendline near the 20-day SMA at 4,330, which pushed the precious metal back into negative territory last week. In the meantime, the price seems to be aiming for a positive start to the week as the US enjoys a long weekend.

Flash S&P Global PMI → EURUSD

Eurozone flash PMI data for June will receive special attention on Tuesday after the final Q1 GDP estimate indicated a mild 0.2% contraction. Business sentiment has remained in contraction territory since April, weighed down by weakness in the services sector.

While the PMI readings could remain below the growth threshold, analysts expect a slight improvement, with the services PMI forecast to rise to 48.5 from 47.7 in May. A stronger-than-expected increase could ease concerns about a technical during the first half of 2026, helping EURUSD rebound from last week's three-month low of 1.1416.

The pair posted a bullish hammer candlestick pattern as technical indicators point to oversold conditions following its recent sharp decline from the 1.1600 area.

UK Prime Minister Resigns →  GBP/USD

The UK Prime Minister announced his resignation after his chief of staff stepped down on Monday, triggering a process that will see the country appoint its seventh leader in a decade following a difficult leadership period, particularly regarding Labour's fiscal plans.

Andy Burnham, Labor's former Greater Manchester Mayor, is the favorite to replace Starmer after winning a special election in north-west England last week, paving the way for his return to Parliament.

Another chapter of political uncertainty may be nearing its end, though pound bulls are not fully convinced yet, as questions remain over the new leader's fiscal and defense agenda. GBP/USD edged slightly higher following the surprise headlines, holding a footing above the 1.3200 level. From a technical perspective, the bulls need to push above 1.3250 to initiate a meaningful recovery phase.

Meanwhile, the flash S&P Global PMI data for June will be closely watched on Tuesday, as a rebound in services-sector sentiment back into growth territory could provide some relief after the disappointing Q1 GDP figures.