US Yields Rise Despite Buybacks; Eyes on ECB Hike

ATFX Market Outlook - 10th September 2026

US Yields Rise Despite Buybacks; Eyes on ECB Hike

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Tensions escalated as the U.S. and Iran engaged in the largest maritime exchange in six months near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude above $100/bbl. U.S. equities remained under pressure, Treasury yields rose even after the Treasury tripled long‑term bond buybacks, and a softer dollar supported gold.

Markets expect the ECB to hike rates by 25 bps, reflecting August inflation exceeding the 2% target. Lagarde’s tone will determine whether this hike signals a pause; a dovish hike could weigh on the euro. U.S. August PPI (expected 5.3%) will set the tone ahead of Friday’s CPI; stronger inflation would lift Fed hike expectations, push yields higher, support the dollar, and weigh on gold.

Global Market Review

U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday as rising oil prices and disappointing buyback details weighed on sentiment. Treasury yields jumped; the DXY held at 98.83, near a two‑week low. Gold rose more than 1%. Brent crude broke $100, and WTI moved above $95.

Key Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Final AUG **

20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision ***

20:00 OPEC Monthly Report **

20:30 US PPI AUG ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

20:45 ECB Press Conference ***

22:00 US Existing Home Sales AUG **

Sep 11 (GMT+8)

00:00 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

07:50 JP PPI YoY AUG **

14:00 GB GDP JUL ***

14:00 GB Industrial & Manufacturing Production JUL **

20:30 US CPI AUG ***

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel SEP ***

22:00 ECB President Lagarde Speech ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1656 / 1.1673

Support: 1.1622 / 1.1601

EUR/USD edged higher ahead of the ECB rate hike and U.S. PPI data.

Analyst view: A hawkish ECB could push the pair above 1.1650 towards the August highs; a weak forward-guidance hike could send it towards 1.1600.

Bias: Wait-and-see

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3575 / 1.3599

Support: 1.3522 / 1.3498

GBP/USD reached a one-week high on Wednesday amid a softer dollar.

Analyst view: GBPUSD is likely to consolidate around the 10–20-day moving averages; market participants await U.S. PPI, and the ECB rate and path offer indirect direction.

Bias: Wait-and-see

USDJPY

Resistance: 153.84 / 154.06

Support: 153.30 / 153.12

USD/JPY held above 153; hawkish BOJ expectations continue to support the yen, limiting the 154 mark. 

Analyst view: USDJPY has been in a three-day decline with a narrowing range ahead of key US inflation data this week. While bears are currently dominant, momentum seems to be slowing as the dollar softens ahead of the US PPI release.

Bias: Low‑range consolidation

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

Resistance: 97.58 / 97.92

Support: 95.81 / 95.38

Oil prices continued to rise due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as higher price forecasts from the EIA (Energy Information Administration).

Analyst view: US crude is reaching multi‑month highs and awaits profit‑taking unless geopolitical risks intensify.

Bias: Cautious at highs

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4446 / 4467

Support: 4381 / 4361

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 69.10 / 70.01

Support: 66.31 / 65.16

Despite surging Treasury yields, precious metals have regained their safe-haven appeal amid pressure on the US dollar.

Analyst view: Spot gold remains below the 10-day MA and is awaiting key US inflation data; a break above $4410 could open the door to $4467, with US PPI in focus today. Investors should watch the upcoming US CPI on Friday to gauge key direction ahead of the FOMC meeting on Sep 17. 

Bias: Mild rebound

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52773 / 53152

Support: 52023 / 51548

U.S. stocks extended losses on Wednesday as Treasury yields climbed and Brent crude crossed $100, while markets remained cautious amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and upcoming inflation data.

Analyst view: Two‑day drop to late‑July lows; bulls may defend 52000, with eyes on US PPI to guide Treasury yield expectations today.

Bias: Under pressure

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29525 / 29627

Support: 29319 / 29215

Treasury yields jumped, and tech stocks came under pressure after U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a new bond buyback plan.

Analyst view: US PPI will determine whether NAS100 breaks below key MAs toward 29000 or rebounds.

Bias: Under pressure

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 79252 / 79979

Support: 77840 / 77140

Rising U.S. Treasury yields, stronger recent jobs data, and an oil price spike kept macro risk appetite subdued, pressuring Bitcoin and broader risk assets.

Analyst view: BTC briefly broke above major MAs but failed near $80000; short‑term bias remains pressured.

Bias: Under pressure

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