A winning streak of 9 days of gains for the US stock market! Did it just end?

When the Federal Reserve raises rates for hopefully the last time at it’s upcoming meeting, there is a risk markets could be surprised by a rather staunch continuing tightening bias statement.

That the Fed will leave the door open to further rate hikes if necessary, citing it is glad to see headline inflation falling, but there remain real concerns for services and core inflation, could surprise some investors.

The Fed wants to defeat inflation quickly, not cautiously or slowly.

This is why we have seen the steepest hiking cycle in history. It must also be remembered that they were fighting to rectify their own wrongs in thinking this inflation cycle was transitory, and being a year late in beginning to hike.

The Fed, like the RBA, created a rollercoaster economy by over-responding to the pandemic. Measures were necessary, but it was the keeping of such measures in the face of the post-Covid boom for an extended period that has caused all the damage. As in overheated asset prices, now deflating, and an entirely artificial economic boom creating the hangover effect we are now experiencing.

Watch this space! Commodity prices are showing resurgence. Global oil prices are on a clearly upward trajectory now. Wheat is streaking higher as fears of supply reduction out of Ukraine and Russia grow.

The US Stock market has really be going sideways all year, but the big names like Apple and Google have been tear always to the upside. Dragging the indices up with them. Main Street USA economic activity is not reflected in the global tech brand stocks, and so they distort the picture of whether these are really good times or not.

There is no breadth for this stock market rally and things have just begun to deteriorate again, as in higher prices for commodities.

It is time to be truly active with regard to your investment portfolio. Did tech stocks just peak for instance? The Nasdaq down 2% on the day. Could the EV boom be coming to an end as BMW and VW road test fleets of hydrogen vehicles? Has AI had its big run for the moment?

And all the while the US economy is stumbling. 

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