Ahead of Global Inflation Releases, Focus Returns to Strait of Hormuz

ATFX Market Outlook - 17th August 2026

Ahead of Global Inflation Releases, Focus Returns to Strait of Hormuz

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S.–Iran peace talks remain stalled, with tanker shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz still disrupted. President Trump even urged citizens to accept “high oil prices.” Early this week, watch for swings in market sentiment around the strait situation.

Today’s focus: U.S. August NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Forecast 10, Previous 15.60), which can provide a leading signal for the upcoming national PMI. Canada July CPI (Forecast +0.4%, Previous ‑0.4%); if in line, it could support CAD.

Global Market Review

U.S. July retail sales fell MoM for the first time in 9 months amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 retreated from record highs last Friday but still gained 0.4% for the week; Nasdaq +0.1%, Dow ‑0.57%.

U.S. Treasury yields rose last Friday, but the dollar fell.

Gold +0.7% last Friday, weekly +0.8%, supported by dollar weakness, closing near two‑month highs.

The Strait of Hormuz saw another tanker attack, halting shipping. Oil rebounded by over 1% last Friday.

Key Events Today:

07:50 JP GDP Prel Q2 ***

10:00 CN Retail Sales JUL **

20:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index AUG **

20:30 CA CPI JUL **

August 18 (GMT+8)

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate JUN **

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index AUG **

20:30 US Housing Starts JUL **

20:30 US Building Permits Prel JUL **

21:15 US Manufacturing & Industrial Production JUL **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1598 / 1.1608

Support: 1.1547 / 1.1538

EUR/USD rose last Friday on weaker U.S. data, reaching its highest level since June 17, and extended gains in Asia on Monday to ~1.1580.

Analyst View: Attempting a breakout above the monthly range top. If successful, target 1.1600.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3590 / 1.3624

Support: 1.3482 / 1.3449

GBP/USD broke above 1.3500 last Friday amid weak U.S. retail sales, holding three‑month highs on Monday morning.

Analyst View: If sustained above 1.3550, could target 1.3600.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.40 / 160.05

Support: 158.73 / 158.06

Japan’s Q2 GDP grew 1.1% on an annualised basis, below forecast. USD/JPY fell for the second day, testing 159.

Analyst View: Broke above last week’s range top and is now testing support near 158.60. Must hold to maintain consolidation.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 83.56 / 85.03

Support: 80.58 / 79.09

Strait shipping outlook is uncertain. Oil rebounded last week, up 6.9% for the week.

Analyst View: Stalled two‑day decline. Needs a breakout above $84 to reverse the adjustment trend.

Bias: Mild rebound

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4450 / 4466

Support: 4364 / 4344

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 66.81 / 67.20

Support: 64.28 / 63.88

Gold rose last Friday amid weaker Fed-hike bets after retail sales data came below expectations, nearing $4,400.

Analyst View: Rebounded from weekly lows, now testing resistance near $4,450. Strait tensions may cap upside.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53,971 / 54,170

Support: 53,498 / 53,295

Dow fell more than 100 points last Friday amid weak retail sales and Strait tensions.

Analyst View: Trading in a narrow weekly range. Strait situation may pressure the index.

Bias: Range trading

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30,204 / 30,550

Support: 29,869 / 29,442

Tech stocks mostly fell last Friday, though memory-chip stocks rose. Nasdaq dipped, but weekly gains were held.

Analyst View: Pulled back from late‑June highs. Holding above 30,000 preserves rebound potential.

Bias: Wait-and-see

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 63,453 / 63,829

Support: 62,235 / 61,865

Crypto market dips as Bitcoin falls below $63K within a narrow range amid big banks cutting 2026 targets.

Analyst View: Still in a weekly low range. Must hold support near 62,500 to sustain consolidation.

Bias: Low‑level consolidation

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