US Midterms: Early Democratic Senate Wins Sink Dollar and Drag Futures Lower

ATFX Market Outlook | November 4th, 2026

US Midterms: Early Democratic Senate Wins Sink Dollar and Drag Futures Lower

Key TakeawaysMarkets are awaiting the outcome of the race to control Congress. The result could reshape government spending plans and regulations for technology and crypto companies. Several key races remain undecided, so stocks, bonds and currencies may swing as results come in. After the Democratic Party won early Senate races, the U.S. dollar weakened across the board in early Asian trading. U.S. stock index futures also fell.

In the tech sector, AMD’s stronger outlook supports confidence in AI demand, but weak breadth and lower futures suggest an uneven recovery. Easing Treasury yields may ease pressure on stock valuations, while the RBA’s hike to 4.85% shows that inflation risks remain.

Today’s Focus

Euro area inflation at 18:00, ADP employment at 21:15 and ISM services at 23:00 GMT+8 will test price pressures and activity. Treasury financing details at 21:30 could influence yields, while election counting remains an immediate source of volatility.

Global Market Review

Tuesday: the Dow fell 0.38% to 51,786.72; the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83% to 25,372.01. AI-related shares supported the broader indexes, although most S&P 500 stocks declined.

The closing snapshot showed the Dollar Index at 101.87, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.631% and the 10-year at 4.962%. Brent was $104.45, WTI $96.81 and gold $3,923.22. These references differ in timing from the morning charts.

Economic CalendarNovember 4 (GMT+8)

09:45 China Services and Composite PMI OCT **

16:55 Germany Services and Composite PMI Final OCT **

17:00 Euro Area Services and Composite PMI Final OCT **

17:30 UK Services and Composite PMI Final OCT **

18:00 Euro Area CPI and Core CPI YoY Flash OCT ***

21:15 US ADP Employment Change OCT **

21:30 US Trade Balance SEP **; Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement

22:45 US Services and Composite PMI Final OCT **

23:00 US ISM Services PMI OCT ***

23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change OCT/30 **

November 5 (GMT+8)

07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes **

08:30 Japan Services and Composite PMI Final OCT **

18:00 Euro Area PPI MoM SEP ***

20:00 BoE Rate Decision, Meeting Minutes and Monetary Policy Report ***

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims OCT/31 **

23:00 ECB President Lagarde Speech **

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.1233/1.1252

Support: 1.1173/1.1155

Analyst’s View: The Euro has rebounded as the Dollar softened. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel favors a December hike. Today’s headline and core CPI will test whether inflation extends beyond energy, while services surveys will update the growth outlook.

EUR/USD is near 1.1234 after a sharp rise from around 1.1191. It is testing the lower edge of the 1.1233–1.1252 resistance zone and the upper boundary of the descending channel. Sustained trading above 1.1233 would strengthen the rebound toward 1.1252, then 1.1270. If the breakout fails, 1.1210 and 1.1191 are the first levels to watch.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish

GBP/USDResistance: 1.3455/1.3477

Support: 1.3398/1.3381

Analyst’s View: Sterling is approaching resistance ahead of Thursday’s expected BoE hike to 4.00%. With the increase widely anticipated, guidance on further tightening could be decisive. Today’s services PMI and election-driven Dollar moves, may also shape the near-term reaction.

GBP/USD is near 1.3452 after recovering from 1.3420 and 1.3437. It is close to the rising channel’s upper boundary and the 1.3455–1.3477 resistance zone. A sustained break above that zone would bring 1.3494 into focus. A rejection would put 1.3437 and 1.3420 back in view, with support at 1.3398–1.3381.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish

USD/JPYResistance: 158.95/159.28

Support: 158.19/157.85

Analyst’s View: The pullback in US yields may reduce support for the Dollar against the Yen. Tomorrow’s BoJ minutes will provide context for Japan’s rate path. Concerns about possible Japanese intervention may also limit gains after the move toward 158.70.

USD/JPY is near 158.18 after a sharp pullback from around 158.70. It is testing the upper edge of the marked 158.19–157.85 support zone. A recovery to 158.19 and 158.52 would improve the outlook toward 158.95–159.28 resistance.

A sustained break below 157.85 would weaken the recent advance and expose 157.51. Holding the support zone would leave scope for another rebound, but the sharp reversal calls for confirmation before treating the earlier rise as resumed.

Bias: Neutral

US Crude Oil Futures

Resistance: 97.83/98.98

Support: 95.26/94.13

Analyst’s View: Iran and the US remain far apart on an agreement despite Qatari mediation. Limited strikes and unresolved conditions for reopening Hormuz leave supply risks intact. A diplomatic breakthrough could ease prices, while renewed disruption would raise the risk premium.

API reported a 5.267-million-barrel crude draw. Today’s EIA report can help confirm the inventory trend and show the role of imports, refinery activity, and product demand. A crude draw alone does not establish stronger consumption.

USOIL is nearly $96.39 after swings that briefly took price below $94.13. It remains below $96.70 and the midline of the descending channel. A sustained move below $95.26 would refocus attention on $94.13 and then $92.96. The recovery from the lower wick has not reversed the broader decline, while supply headlines leave both bullish and bearish positions exposed to sudden changes.

Bias: Cautiously Bearish

Spot Gold and Spot SilverSpot Gold Resistance: 3963/3976

Spot Gold Support: 3897/3885

Spot Silver Resistance: 50.91/51.62

Spot Silver Support: 48.61/47.91

Analyst’s View: Lower yields can support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset. A softer Dollar may add support, while uncertainty about the election result could boost demand for safety.

ADP and the employment and price components of ISM services will help shape rate expectations. ADP covers private payrolls and should be read alongside Friday’s broader jobs report. Persistent price pressure could limit the relief from softer employment data.

Gold is near $3,943 after recovering above $3,934 and approaching the upper boundary of the falling channel. Clearing $3,951 would strengthen the rebound toward $3,963–$3,976. Below $3,934, intermediate levels are $3,922 and $3,910, with support at $3,897–$3,885.

Silver also depends on industrial demand, making growth signals important alongside yields and the Dollar. It is near $49.86 after rebounding from $48.61 but remains below $50.03. Below $49.31, attention returns to silver’s marked support at $48.61 and $47.91. The latest stabilization has yet to reverse the broader descending structure, so both metals still need sustained follow-through above resistance.

Bias: Gold Neutral to Cautiously Bearish; Silver Cautiously Bearish

Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)

Resistance: 51777/51966

Support: 51355/51169

Analyst’s View: The Dow lagged Tuesday as Apple’s margin outlook weighed on sentiment. The yield pullback may ease some pressure on valuations, but election-related fiscal uncertainty remains. Today’s Treasury announcement could shift expectations for future bond supply.

JOLTS reported September job openings at 7.5 million, though the BLS said monthly changes in openings and hires were little changed. ADP and ISM services will provide further evidence on whether activity supports current rate expectations.

DJIA is near 51,550, below 51,592 and the descending channel’s midline. Reclaiming 51,592 would help stabilize, but the marked resistance at 51,777–51,966 remains the more important test for a firmer rebound.

Failure to stabilize would leave 51,355 and 51,169 in focus, followed by 50,977. Until price regains the resistance zone, rebounds remain vulnerable within the sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

Bias: Cautiously Bearish

Nasdaq 100 Index (NAS100)

Resistance: 28444/28747

Support: 27738/27440

Analyst’s View: AMD reported revenue of $13.38 billion, up 45%, with data center revenue up 97%. Its $17 billion fourth-quarter sales outlook lifted shares after the close. This points to AI demand, but financing needs and returns on infrastructure spending still matter.

Tuesday’s cash-market advance preceded AMD’s release. Weak breadth and lower early Asia futures suggest the recovery remains uneven. Election outcomes could also shift expectations for technology oversight, adding uncertainty to the outlook for AI spending.

NAS100 is near 27,830 after another rejection below 28,444. It remains below 28,131 and the descending channel’s midline. A sustained break below 27,738 would expose 27,440 and then 27,132. Price is approaching the marked support zone, but a bounce from that area would need follow-through to interrupt the broader decline.

Bias: Cautiously Bearish

Bitcoin (BTC)​Resistance: 77731/78501

Support: 75934/75338

Analyst’s View: Congressional control could influence digital-asset legislation. Easing yields may boost risk appetite, though trading also depends on technology sentiment. Clearer election results may reduce uncertainty, but policy changes will take time to materialize.

Bitcoin is near $76,848 after a rebound stalled below $77,731. It remains below $77,146 and the descending channel’s midline. If $76,540 gives way, the next key supports are $75,934 and $75,338. A break below that zone would expose $74,579. Holding support could allow another recovery attempt, but the latest rebound has not reversed the downtrend.

Bias: Cautiously Bearish

Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 10 regulatory licences and authorisations, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's CMA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, Cambodia's SERC and Colombia's SFC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.