All Eyes on U.S. CPI to Signal Fed’s Next Move

ATFX Market Outlook - 12th August 2026

All Eyes on U.S. CPI to Signal Fed’s Next Move

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

On Tuesday, Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the U.S. changes its behaviour and accepts Iran’s conditions to end the war. With no progress in the Middle East and markets awaiting today’s inflation data, FX trading was relatively steady yesterday. U.S. equities and gold edged lower, with a cautious tone prevailing.

Today’s focus: The U.S. July Consumer Price Index will be released tonight, the first major inflation test since last Friday’s unexpected nonfarm payroll decline. With energy‑related price pressures easing, headline CPI YoY is expected to slip from June’s 3.5% to 3.4%, with MoM +0.1%. Core CPI (ex‑food and energy) is forecast to fall from 2.6% to 2.5%. The results will shape Fed rate outlook and trigger broad market volatility.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities fell on Tuesday: Dow ‑0.34%, S&P 500 ‑0.3%, Nasdaq ‑0.6%.

The dollar held steady ahead of CPI; Treasury yields eased.

Gold dipped slightly but hovered near two‑month highs.

Oil rose further on doubts about a U.S.–Iran peace deal, sustaining supply concerns.

Key Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final JUL **

20:00 OPEC Monthly Report **

20:30 US CPI JUL ***

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

August 13（GMT+8）

07:50 JP PPI JUL **

14:00 GB GDP Prel Q2 ***

14:00 GB Industrial Production JUN **

17:00 EU Industrial Production JUN **

20:30 US PPI JUL ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1581 / 1.1595

Support: 1.1503 / 1.1489

EUR/USD traded narrowly near 1.1540 on Tuesday, awaiting U.S. CPI, while Middle East tensions lifted oil.

Analyst View: Tested 10‑day MA support. CPI will decide whether the pair holds above or retreats toward 1.1500.

Bias: Narrow range watch

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3558 / 1.3591

Support: 1.3449 / 1.3416

GBP/USD traded around 1.3500 on Tuesday, with no UK data releases.

Analyst View: Likely to remain in a narrow range until CPI. Watch 1.3530–1.3475 zone (weekly high and 10‑day MA). CPI could break range.

Bias: Narrow range watch

USDJPY

Resistance: 160.05 / 160.89

Support: 158.73 / 158.06

USD/JPY extended gains on Tuesday but slowed as markets awaited CPI, holding near one‑week highs.

Analyst View: CPI will decide whether rally extends toward 160 or retreats to 10‑day MA near 158.39.

Bias: Narrow range watch

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 86.94 / 88.41

Support: 80.62 / 79.12

Oil price rose on Tuesday to one‑week highs on doubts about a peace deal and supply concerns.

Analyst View: Broke 20‑day MA resistance. Holding above could target prior highs near $86.90.

Bias: Mildly bullish

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4430 / 4463

Support: 4332 / 4289

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 66.57 / 67.55

Support: 63.29 / 62.03

Gold retreated Tuesday from highs, pressured by oil and caution ahead of CPI.

Analyst View: Hit $4,435 on Tuesday (highest since June 5). If CPI cools, gold may extend rebound toward $4,500; if CPI supports hikes, risk of drop below $4,300.

Bias: Range watch

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 54,377 / 54,583

Support: 53,498 / 53,295

U.S.–Iran stalemate weighed on Tuesday; indices fell ahead of CPI. Dow rose early then retreated.

Analyst View: Holding near weekly lows. CPI will decide whether Dow escapes range bottom. 10‑day MA near 53,600 is key support.

Bias: Slightly pressured

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,869 / 30,204

Support: 29,107 / 28,766

Tech stocks fell on Tuesday; Google posted the biggest drop in six months. Nasdaq declined below 29,600.

Analyst View: Trading in range since last week. CPI may break pattern: upside toward 30,000 or downside to 10‑day MA support.

Bias: Slightly pressured

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 64,569 / 65,125

Support: 62,762 / 62,216

Bitcoin slipped toward $64k on Tuesday, down over 1% after failing four times to hold above $65k. Traders positioned for CPI.

Analyst View: Fell for the third day, broke below MAs, hitting two‑week lows. CPI will decide whether the decline extends below $63k or stabilises.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

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