BoJ in Focus as Iran Awaits U.S. Response

ATFX Market Outlook – 28th April 2026  

BoJ in Focus as Iran Awaits U.S. Response

(By ATFX Analyst Team) 

Summary 

·       Earlier yesterday, Iranian sources revealed Tehran’s latest proposal: Iran’s nuclear programme will not be discussed until the war ends and shipping disputes in the Gulf region are resolved. Ship-tracking data showed that six tankers carrying Iranian crude oil were recently forced to return to Iran due to the U.S. blockade, highlighting the impact of the Iran war on shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz.  

·       Today’s focus turns to the Bank of Japan, the first major central bank to announce its policy decision this week. Ongoing Middle East tensions mean the BoJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged in April. However, markets will closely watch whether the governor’s press conference signals a possible June rate hike. Market expectations for a June rate hike have risen to 76%. For USD/JPY, the 160 level remains a key psychological threshold. If the BoJ delivers a hawkish signal, the yen may gain support.

Global Market Review 

U.S. stocks opened the week cautiously. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher on Monday amid light trading, as investors focused on U.S.–Iran developments and upcoming earnings from major technology companies. The Dow Jones fell 0.13%, the S&P 500 rose 0.12%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%. U.S. Treasuries declined, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.18% to 98.45. Investors continued to assess the impact of the diplomatic deadlock in U.S.–Iran talks while preparing for a busy week of central bank decisions.

Gold prices fell yesterday as diplomatic progress towards ending the Middle East conflict stalled, keeping oil prices elevated and inflation concerns alive. Markets also focused on this week’s major central bank meetings for further clues about the war’s economic impact. U.S. crude oil closed higher yesterday, near last week’s highs, supported by the deadlock in U.S.–Iran peace talks and ongoing restrictions on oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to tighten global oil supply.

Key Events Today: 

07:30 JP Unemployment Rate MAR **  11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***

14:30 BOJ Press Conference ***22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence APR ** 22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index APR **  

Tomorrow:Japan Holiday04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock *** 09:30 AU CPI YoY MAR **  17:00 EU Economic Sentiment APR **20:00 EU GERMANY CPI Prel APR **20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MAR **21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision *** 22:30 BoC Press Conference ***

EURUSD 

Resistance: 1.1746/1.1771Support: 1.1674/1.1643

EURUSD held near 1.1720 as the dollar softened ahead of the Fed and ECB meetings. The euro remains supported by policy caution, but upside is capped by oil-driven inflation risks and Middle East uncertainty.

Analyst View: EURUSD still has short-term support from a softer dollar, but the pair is struggling to break above the 1.1746–1.1771 resistance zone. Unless price clears this zone, upside momentum may remain limited.

Bias: Range-bound trading

GBPUSD 

Resistance: 1.3560/1.3578Support: 1.3484/1.3465

GBPUSD was little changed around 1.3534. The pair remains supported by a softer dollar, while traders await the BoE’s comments on energy prices, inflationary pressures and trade-related risks.

Analyst View: GBPUSD remains capped below the 1.3560–1.3578 resistance zone. If price fails to reclaim this area, short-term momentum may weaken toward the 1.3484–1.3465 support zone.

Bias: Mildly bullish

USDJPY 

Resistance: 159.86/160.13Support: 159.26/159.00

USDJPY hovered near 159.39, just below the 160 intervention-sensitive level. Yen weakness remains, but traders are cautious ahead of the BoJ decision and any possible June rate-hike signals.

Analyst View: USDJPY remains supported above the 159.00–159.26 zone, but upside momentum may slow near 159.86–160.13. A clear break above 160.13 would confirm renewed bullish momentum, though intervention risk remains elevated.

Bias: Awaiting range breakout

US Crude Oil Futures (JUN) 

Resistance: 101.06/105.00Support: 93.18/89.31

WTI climbed to around $96.4–$96.7 as stalled US-Iran talks and ongoing Hormuz shipping restrictions tightened global supply. The oil market remains supported, while geopolitical risk keeps disruption fears elevated.

Analyst View: WTI’s rebound remains supported by the risk of supply disruptions, particularly as Hormuz-related tensions keep the market sensitive to fresh headlines. Technically, buyers have regained control above $93.18, but the rally may face stronger selling pressure if price approaches the $101.06–$105.00 resistance band.

Bias: Range-bound and cautious

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) 

Resistance: 4765/4795Support: 4638/4609

Spot Silver 

Resistance: 77.80/80.45Support: 71.98/69.38

Gold slipped back below $4,700 as oil-driven inflation concerns reduced expectations for rate cuts. Investors are now watching the Fed statement and Powell’s tone for clues about real yields and gold’s next direction.

Analyst View: Gold’s tone remains fragile as fading rate-cut expectations reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. The chart also shows sellers still active below $4,765–$4,795, suggesting a stronger recovery likely requires a clean break above this zone.

Bias: Mildly bearish

Dow Jones Futures  

Resistance: 49751/50321Support: 48854/48292

Dow futures fell 0.13% as investors grew cautious ahead of major earnings, Fed policy and Middle East developments. Defensive sentiment capped gains despite broader market resilience.

Analyst View: The Dow is showing resilience after its recent rebound, but momentum is not strong enough yet to challenge the upper resistance zone. As long as price holds above 48,292–48,854, buyers still have a base, though Fed and earnings risks may keep upside selective.

Bias: Weak and cautious

NASDAQ 100 

Resistance: 27438/27813Support: 26943/26548

NAS100 rose 0.20% and reached another record close, helped by Nvidia’s 4% jump and optimism ahead of big tech earnings. Still, Fed uncertainty and scrutiny of AI spending may cap near-term gains.

Analyst View: NAS100’s structure remains stronger than the Dow, with buyers still chasing momentum above the support zone. However, price is approaching a key resistance band, where profit-taking could emerge if big-tech earnings or Fed guidance fail to impress.

Bias: Mildly bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 

Resistance: 78143/78824

Support: 75973/75303

Bitcoin slipped towards $76,900 after failing to hold above $80,000 resistance, as traders grew cautious ahead of major central bank decisions and renewed US-Iran uncertainty. Crypto fund inflows remain supportive, but short-term momentum appears capped.

Analyst View: Bitcoin’s pullback appears more like a momentum pause than a full trend reversal for now. Buyers may retest the $75,303–$75,973 support zone, but unless price reclaims $78,143, short-term upside may remain vulnerable to further profit-taking.

Bias: Neutral above $75,303.

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