CPI Moderation Lifts Gold to 2-Month High; U.S. PPI in Focus

ATFX Market Outlook - 13th August 2026

CPI Moderation Lifts Gold to 2-Month High; U.S. PPI in Focus

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. July CPI rose just 0.1% MoM, with YoY easing to 3.4%, in line with expectations. Gasoline prices fell for the second month, while underlying inflation pressures remained mild, further reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike next month. U.S. equities closed mixed Tuesday, while gold hit a two‑month high.

Today’s focus: UK Q2 GDP, a direct test of the economy’s resilience. Preliminary YoY GDP is forecast at 1.1% (prior 0.9%). Stronger growth would support GBP. U.S. July PPI is forecast at 4.9% (prior 5.5%). If cooling as expected, it would extend the CPI‑driven trend.

Global Market Review

S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Wednesday, supported by mild inflation and strong earnings from CoreWeave and other AI infrastructure firms—Dow ‑0.04%, S&P 500 +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%.

Dollar index +0.17%.

Gold +0.9% to $4,407.06/oz, highest since June 5.

Oil slipped slightly, pressured by ongoing Middle East ship attacks and stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks.

Key Events Today:

14:00 GB GDP Prel Q2 ***

14:00 GB Industrial Production JUN **

17:00 EU Industrial Production JUN **

20:30 US PPI JUL ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

August 14（GMT+8）

07:30 RBA Gov Bullock Speech ***

17:00 EU GDP 2nd Est Q2 ***

20:30 US Retail Sales JUL ***

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel AUG ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1551 / 1.1567

Support: 1.1503 / 1.1488

EUR/USD fell for the third day, closing at weekly lows despite softer U.S. inflation, as U.S.–Iran talks stalled.

Analyst View: Trading near range bottom. Watch Eurozone industrial output and U.S. PPI to see if the pair holds above 1.1500.

Bias: Slightly pressured

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3558 / 1.3591

Support: 1.3449 / 1.3416

GBP/USD moved toward mid‑July highs, aided by softer U.S. inflation. Focus now on UK GDP.

Analyst View: Rebounded then fell after hitting 1.3546 resistance—trading below 1.3500. UK GDP and U.S. PPI will decide the next move.

Bias: Wait-and-see

USDJPY

Resistance: 160.05 / 160.89

Support: 158.73 / 158.06

USD/JPY fell, then rebounded, closing at its highest since late July, near 159.50.

Analyst View: Bulls hold short‑term edge, but resistance at 160 may cap gains. Likely consolidating near weekly highs.

Bias: Range mode

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 85.07 / 86.94

Support: 80.61 / 79.11

Oil slipped yesterday amid Strait uncertainty. Iran–U.S. talks remain divided, sustaining supply concerns.

Analyst View: Still near weekly highs. Holding above $81 preserves rebound potential.

Bias: Mild adjustment

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4463 / 4504

Support: 4396 / 4364

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 67.54 / 68.54

Support: 64.27 / 63.29

Softer inflation reinforced expectations of the Fed holding rates in September. Gold hit two‑month highs, hovering near $4,400.

Analyst View: Uptrend channel intact. Could test $4,500 if PPI aligns, but U.S.–Iran stalemate may cap upside.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 54,170 / 54,377

Support: 53,498 / 53,295

Dow fell for the third day, staying near weekly lows. CPI met expectations, offering no fresh momentum.

Analyst View: Downtrend line from last week’s highs is resistance. Watch support near 53,500.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30,204 / 30,551

Support: 29,442 / 29,107

Nasdaq rose modestly yesterday, lifted by AI stocks, though sector divergence widened.

Analyst View: Retained mild gains. May target last week’s highs if PPI supports.

Bias: Cautiously bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 64,569 / 65,125

Support: 62,762 / 62,216

The tamest U.S. inflation print in months left crypto markets flat, with Bitcoin shrugging off the data hit and extending its decline.

Analyst View: At two‑week lows, bulls defend $63k. Could rebound mildly, but a break lower risks a retest of early August lows.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

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