Dollar Retreats on Jobless Claims, Eye on NFP

• Disappointing jobless claims weakened the dollar, raising focus on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report.
• Bitcoin breached $100K, reflecting growing optimism for crypto under Trump’s administration.
• Gold prices fell as Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks reinforced the strong US economy, pressuring safe-haven assets ahead of jobs data.

Market Summary

The Dollar Index fell against six major currencies after US jobless claims rose to 224,000, exceeding the forecast of 215,000, dampening optimism ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Profit-taking weighed on the dollar, but rising US Treasury yields, supported by hawkish Fed remarks, limited losses as investors await further clarity on the labor market.

Bitcoin surged past $100,000 for the first time, fueled by optimism over pro-crypto policies under President-elect Donald Trump, including Paul Atkins’ SEC Chair nomination. After reaching $103,649, Bitcoin retreated to $98,803 on profit-taking, though bullish sentiment persists amid expectations for favorable regulatory moves.

Gold prices dropped as investors took profits ahead of key US labor data, pressured further by hawkish Fed comments on the strong economy. Fed Chair Powell's confidence in monetary policy drove a selloff in safe-haven assets like gold.

Current rate hike bets on 18th December Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (40.4%) VS -25 bps (59.6%) 

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index retreated sharply against a basket of six major currencies following disappointing US jobs data. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 224k, missing expectations of 215k, dampening optimism ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report due later today. The downbeat report prompted profit-taking on the US Dollar. However, losses were limited by rising US Treasury yields, driven by hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve.

The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 38, suggesting the index might experience technical correction since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 106.50, 107.00

Support level: 105.75, 104.50

XAU/USD, H4Gold prices tumble as investors take profits ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment report. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks, emphasizing the robust state of the US economy, added pressure on the non-yielding asset. Powell’s confidence in monetary policy allowed the Fed to adopt a cautious approach, leading to a selloff in safe-haven assets like gold.

Gold prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 36, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 2655.00, 2705.00

Support level: 2610.00, 2555.00

GBP/USD，H4The GBP/USD pair climbed higher, primarily due to a weakening US Dollar, as disappointing US Initial Jobless Claims data raised concerns about the US economy. With claims falling short of expectations, traders take profits on the dollar ahead of key jobs reports, including Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. Despite limited market drivers from the UK, the pair benefited from dollar weakness as investors looked to reduce exposure to volatility.

GBP/USD is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 61, suggesting the pair might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated from overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 1.2790, 1.2850

Support level: 1.2700, 1.2620

EUR/USD，H4The euro advanced on Thursday as French government bonds stabilized following the political crisis in France. President Emmanuel Macron is moving quickly to appoint a new prime minister after Michel Barnier resigned following a no-confidence vote. Additionally, traders are increasingly certain the European Central Bank will announce a rate cut next week, with markets anticipating approximately 157 basis points of easing by the end of 2025, providing further momentum for the euro.

EUR/USD is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 60, suggesting the pair might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 1.0607, 1.0680

Support level: 1.0440, 1.0325

USD/JPY, H4The Japanese yen appreciated as market speculation about a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan intensified. Remarks from traditionally dovish policymaker Toyoaki Nakamura, expressing openness to a rate hike, added to expectations. While previous statements from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda had already fueled anticipation, recent reports suggesting the central bank may delay a hike have created mixed sentiment, adding complexity to the outlook for the yen.

USD/JPY is trading lower while currently near the support level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 46, suggesting the pair might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 151.70, 154.15

Support level: 149.35, 146.40

NASDAQ, H4:NASDAQ slipped 0.2%. Initial jobless claims rose to 224,000, slightly above expectations, but analysts remain optimistic about the labor market's resilience. Dollar General edged higher despite trimming its annual profit outlook, while Kroger gained 1% despite missing revenue estimates. American Eagle slumped 14% after cutting its sales growth target, hinting at erratic holiday apparel demand. Meanwhile, Five Below surged 10% on strong results and an upbeat outlook, and American Airlines jumped 17% after raising its profit forecast amid strong travel demand.

Nasdaq is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 69, suggesting the index might enter overbought territory. 

Resistance level:  21700.00, 22025.00

Support level:  21375.00, 20970.00

BTC/USD H4:

Bitcoin skyrocketed past $100,000 for the first time, marking a significant milestone for digital assets. The rally was fueled by optimism surrounding pro-crypto policies under President-elect Donald Trump, including his nomination of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $103,649 before retreating to $98,803 amid profit-taking. Despite the pullback, long-term bullish sentiment persists as the market anticipates further crypto-friendly initiatives from the Trump administration.

BTC is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 62, suggesting the crypto might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 98725.00, 101990.00

Support level: 91780.00, 87645.00

CL OIL, H4

Oil prices fell as concerns about growing crude supply persisted. OPEC+ decisions on production levels failed to surprise investors, with the group opting to delay a planned production increase by three months instead of implementing direct cuts. The additional production, now scheduled for April, will be phased in more slowly than previously planned. This cautious policy approach, coupled with a pessimistic economic outlook, kept oil prices under pressure.

Oil prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 41, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 69.95, 72.70

Support level: 67.90, 66.90