Dollar seeks to rebound as investors zero in on US data

Risk appetite improves after Trump-Musk spat

Risk assets are recovering somewhat today, after a rollercoaster session on Thursday that included US data prints, the ECB meeting, a Trump-Xi call and political drama across the Atlantic. However, the US dollar does not appear to see light at the end of the tunnel, thus struggling to stage a convincing comeback against the euro.

Predominantly, the greenback has to deal with the messy breakup between former allies, US President Trump and Elon Musk. The DOGE creator has left the government on bad terms, partly due to the “Big Beautiful Bill” limiting EV subsidies and projected to add $3 trillion to the US debt load over the next decade.

Musk reacted in a rather unexpected way, potentially quickly overcoming the 'denial' stage of a typical breakup and focusing on the stage of 'anger'. His revelations about the Epstein files, his threat to dismantle the Dragon spacecraft, and, more importantly, his belief that tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of 2025, opened the door to a continued public rift between the former comrades. Musk has already tried to pull back from the initially aggressive rhetoric, which is most likely an early indication that he is already in the 'bargaining' stage of grief.

Trump-Xi call restarts negotiations

This public dispute overshadowed yesterday’s Trump-Xi call. For most investors, the May 12 trade deal marked the beginning of a new relationship between the two economic superpowers. However, that was not exactly the case after the public spat about rare-earth metals, with a high-level call being necessary for negotiations to restart. We are firmly back to square one for this marathon, and considering both leaders’ governing styles, it will be a very bumpy road until, and if, an agreement is reached.

Key US data today, two weeks before the next Fed meeting

Today, the focus will be firmly on the US data calendar and any likely trade agreement. Based on articles, there has been considerable progress in the US-Canada negotiations, with the chances of a new deal announced on June 15 at the G7 meeting held in Canada rising considerably.

Data-wise, the usual start-of-the-month labour market report is expected to monopolize the market’s interest. Following the abysmal ADP employment increase, the jump in weekly jobless claims and the mixed employment sub-indices from various business surveys, nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 130k. Unemployment is seen holding steady at 4.2%, while the annual pace of increase in average earnings is expected to slow to 3.7%.

Based on the current market sentiment, a stronger set of figures, for example a 200k+ increase in nonfarm payrolls, or confirmation of the aforementioned forecasts may prove more market-moving, causing a risk-on reaction, than a soft report. However, the Fed outlook will probably not change dramatically, as most Fed members are still worried about the impact of Trump’s tariff strategy.

Interestingly, regardless of today’s data prints, Trump is not expected to ease pressure on the Fed, following the eighth consecutive ECB rate cut. ECB speakers may flood the newswires with their commentary today, with the hawks openly stating their preference for a pause, but the euro’s short-term performance will depend on today’s US data and the next episodes of the Trump-Musk saga.

Gold trades sideways, silver skyrockets

Gold appears to have found a new floor, with $3,340 acting as a strong support in the first sessions of June. However, silver is stealing the limelight, as, at the time of writing, it is trading above the $36 level, recording a new 13-year high. Some investors believe that this move could be an indication of a brighter economic outlook, given silver's multiple industrial uses. While that could be the case, the current upleg could also be driven by hoarding amidst the ongoing rare earth metals dispute.