​EBC Markets Briefing | Aussie dollar may lose steam; gas prices skyrocketed

The Australian dollar hit 15-month highs on Thursday as a de-escalation in Greenland tensions soothed risk sentiment, while a strong set of domestic jobs data narrowed the odds on a near-term rate hike.

The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 4.1%, the lowest in seven months, mirroring signs of a pickup in consumer spending. That suggests economy is accelerating faster than anticipated.

A 53% chance of a rate hike from the RBA next month has been priced in. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the National Australia Bank have been calling for an action since late last year.

Australia's exports dropped in November as the exports of iron ore weakened. The commodity's rose to an 18-month high this month, driven by restocking by Chinese metallurgical plants.

Chinese steelmakers have struggled since late 2022 owing to property downturn. However, analysts said profitability improved in 2025, in part due to flat steel products in higher demand.

Rabobank sees scope for dips in Australian dollar in the coming weeks before rallying into the middle of the year. The bank adds that a pullback towards $0.66 may be a buying opportunity.

The technical chart reinforced the view. The currency was in overbought conditions with RSI above 70, so we see it dip below 0.6780 in the short term.

Asset recap

As of market close on 21 January, among EBC products, United States Natural Gas Fund ETF led gains. According to a recent EIA report, a decrease in the prices is expected by 2026.

‍Intel gets a boost from recent indications that the company could become the No. 2 chip foundry ahead of Samsung. Its 18A manufacturing technology is seen as equivalent to TSMC's 2 nanometer process technology.

Attention is firmly fixed on Microsoft's upcoming quarterly results. The report for the software giant's second fiscal quarter of 2026 comes at a time when the broader technology sector is under pressure.

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