​EBC Markets Briefing | Bullion breaches $4,500; natural gas prices surged

Gold surged to break above the psychological milestone of $4,500 an ounce on Wednesday for the first time as safe-haven demand and expectations of rate cuts kept bullion a favoured asset.

Overall, JP Morgan Global Research is forecasting prices to average $5,055 by Q1 2026, rising toward $5,400 by the end of 2027. Some of the largest buyers are central banks whose gold holdings already exceed 10%.

Net inflows into gold ETFs fell sharply in November, nearly halving on a month-on-month basis. The decline marks the second consecutive month of lower inflows amid profit-taking.

The dollar was headed for its worst annual performance in more than two decades as traders wagered the Fed would have room to cut rates further next year even as some of its peers looked set to hike.

The currency's outlook hinges on anticipation that the US job market will continue to weaken — which remains uncertain, given the surprising resilience of the post-pandemic economy.

China and Russia have expressed support for Venezuela as it confronts a US blockade of sanctioned oil tankers, while Trump continues to ramp up his pressure campaign on Maduro.

Gold entered deep overbought territory, and could be due for a pullback similar to that in late October. For this week, the price will likely hover around $4,900 given thin trading during the Christmas holiday.

Asset recap

As of market close on 23 December, among EBC products, United States Natural Gas Fund ETF led gains. Natural gas is closing out 2025 with strong gains as record LNG flows clashed with warmer weather forecasts.

Chinese stocks are set to extend gains next year on fading geopolitical risks, AI push and household savings finding their way into equities amid low interest rates, said Goldman Sachs.

Nvidia has told Chinese clients it aims to start shipping its second-most powerful AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February, according to people familiar with the matter.

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