EBC Markets Briefing | Crude up on supply jitters; Meta shares soared

Oil prices are headed for their biggest monthly gains in years on Friday as tensions in the Middle East escalated over a possible US attack on Iran that could disrupt supplies from the country.

Trump urged Iran on to make a deal on nuclear weapons or face fierce attacks, drawing a threat from Tehran to strike back hard. Citi expects the US and Israel to take restrained actions against Iran in the near term.

Disruptions in Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela have affected a combined 1.5 million bpd of supply in January, JPMorgan analysts said, adding that US crude and condensate output could decrease by 340,000 bpd.

Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba, although no details were given on specific tariff rates or which countries could be targeted.

OPEC+ is expected to keep its pause on oil output increases for March at a meeting on Sunday, three OPEC+ delegates said. The cartel has raised output targets by around 2.9 million bpd from April to December 2025.

The global oil market will be in deep surplus in the first quarter of 2026, the IEA said last week, as so far excess supplies have offset the geopolitical risk of disruption. That dampens the long-term outlook.

Brent crude broke above 200 EMA before plunging amid risk-off mood. However, a moderate rally is likely in the wind given signs that markets are regaining composure.

Asset recap

As of market close on 29 January, among EBC products, Meta Platforms shares led gains after showing signs that massive AI investments are boosting the bottom line.

Microsoft shares suffered their worst day since March 2020 as the company struggled to justify recent spending plans to investors and showed a slowdown in its cloud segment.

Despite a sharp drop in the previous session, gold is still on track to achieve its best monthly performance since the 1980s. The surge is driven by rising economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

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