EBC Markets Briefing | European stocks bullish despite prospect of rate hikes

European stocks ended slightly higher on Tuesday as market watchers monitored unfolding US-Iran tensions for potential impacts on oil prices and market sentiment.

Germany's top economic institutes have doubled their 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% and raised projections for 2027, according to sources. However, growth is expected to remain meagre by 2028.

Strategists have issued their most bullish September outlook for European stocks since 2018, driven by robust corporate earnings that are cushioning the blow from geopolitical tensions, a Bloomberg survey shows.

The swap market is now pricing in three additional increases by the ECB through June; the BOE is expected to deliver four rate hikes by July next year after holding rates steady.

BofA said the bull case has softened among asset managers this month. A net 39% of European fund managers expect upside for regional equities over the next few months, down from a net 53% in August.

French stocks still underperformed due to lacklustre luxury demand and budget crisis. The country's debt is set for highest level since 1978 as fiscal strain grows.

EBC Financial Group analyst says that the CAC 40 broke below the 200 SMA in early September, tilting the risk towards bearish-to-neutral. The immediate resistance is seen around 8,220.

Asset Recap

As of market close on 22 September, among EBC major products, Micron Technology shares led gains. AI optimism increased despite a spending boom as investment across the hyperscaler ecosystem surged.

Schwab stock plunged following sharp reassessment of its rate-sensitive earnings profile after last week's Federal Reserve hike, combined with broader weakness across financial stocks.

Saudi Arabia's upcoming resumption of crude exports from Yanbu—following an East-West pipeline disruption—is helping calm supply anxieties. This news adds further downward pressure on global oil prices.

A portfolio diagnostic is critical to managing tail risk. EBC Turbo leverages a proprietary scoring model to run a six-dimensional analytics scan within 5 seconds, mapping your risk-return dynamics and decoding your trading DNA.

EBC Financial Group Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC Global Financial Collaboration or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.