EUR/USD (4H) squeezed in tight SMA range

EUR/USD stays quiet in a tight SMA range. Losing 1.1605 support could trigger fresh selling. Risk: Rebound above 1.1625 brings bulls back.

Overview: EUR/USD has entered a tight consolidation range between its 20- and 50-period SMAs at 1.1605 and 1.1617, respectively, following a partial recovery from its post-NFP low of 1.1584. Despite the recent rebound, buyers have failed to clear last week’s resistance around 1.1617, keeping downside risks active.

Momentum: The RSI remains glued to its neutral 50 level, while the Stochastic oscillator is attempting a bearish crossover below its recent highs, reflecting some hesitation among buyers.

Bearish scenario: A close below 1.1605 could test immediate support around 1.1590. Further declines from there could signal a continuation towards the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.1573.

Risk: A breakout above the 23.6% Fibo at 1.1625 could invalidate the near-term downside bias.

 

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