Event Preview: The Federal Reserve Rate Decision -  28 January 2026

What’s expected and why

🔹The Fed is anticipated to leave the rate unchanged.

🔹There’s a little debate around the decision itself - expectations are fully priced in.

Market focus

The real driver for the market will be the guidance. The items of the guidance are the timing and the pace of future rate cuts.  The market will focus on two key elements:

Tone of statement:

🔹Hawkish - inflation risks are still elevated, monetary policy needs to stay restrictive.

🔹Dovish - officials are confident that inflation is under control.

J.Powell’s press conference:

🔹Any mentioning the optional rate cuts or the growth risk will matter.

🔹The market will also try to read between the lines - what the Chair has not said about.

XAUUSD Technical Levels and Scenarios

Current Support:      $5,180 

Current Resistance: $5,300

Gold remains within a strong bullish structure. Momentum is positive, but the Fed will surely cause a heightened volatility in the metal.

🔹If the Fed is dovish, gold might break above recent highs and extend the trend.

🔹If it stays neutral, consolidation and range trading are possible. The structure remains the same, but the trend move will pause.

🔹With hawkish terms, the price is likely to break the current support, aiming toward $5,080.

EURUSD Technical Levels and Scenarios

Current Support:      1.19000. 

Current Resistance: 1.20500

EURUSD is trading within a constructive upward channel, supported primarily by the US dollar’s weakness rather than the euro’s strength.

🔹The dovish Fed will push the pair higher.

🔹The neutral Fed will cause sideways consolidation above the current support, the trend remains intact.

🔹And the hawkish regulator might cause a sustained break below trend support toward 1.18000. However, holding the current support line will keep the bullish structure alive.

Expect volatility spikes after 21:00 MMT and trade with Headway