Fed Chair Speech to Set Tone for September Interest Rates Hinges

ATFX Market Outlook - 28th August 2026

Fed Chair Speech to Set Tone for September Interest Rates Hinges

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Trump stated that the U.S. has no intention of extending its memorandum of understanding with Iran. Qatar’s Prime Minister visited Tehran on Thursday to meet Iran’s chief negotiator in an attempt to restart stalled diplomatic talks. Markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East.

Today’s focus: Fed Chair Warsh’s speech will be pivotal in shaping market expectations for September and year‑end rate policy and will be a key factor in determining the direction of financial markets as August closes.

Global Market Review

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell for the second consecutive week, with Continuing Claims dropping to a one‑month low.

On Thursday, U.S. equities rose, led by technology stocks boosted by Nvidia’s earnings and upbeat forecasts: Dow +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.72%, Nasdaq +1.57%.

The dollar was little changed late in the session; gold rebounded slightly as markets awaited Warsh’s speech today.

Crude oil rose nearly 2% after Trump said the U.S. would not extend its memorandum of understanding with Iran.

Key Events Today:

07:30 JP Unemployment Rate JUL **

15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate AUG **

17:00 EU Economic Sentiment AUG **

20:30 CA GDP MoM JUN **

22:00 Fed Chair Warsh Speech ***

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final AUG ***

Key Data and Events Coming Week (GMT+8)

Monday: UK Holiday, CN Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI, GERMANY CPI, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Tuesday: AU/JP/EU/GB/US Manufacturing PMI Final, GERMANY Retail Sales, EU CPI & Unemployment Rate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS Job Openings

Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, AU GDP, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, US ADP Employment Change, US Factory Orders, BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

Thursday: Fed Beige Book, AU/JP/EU/GB/US Services & Composite PMI Final, EU PPI, US Balance of Trade & Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Services PMI

Friday: GERMANY Factory Orders, BoE Gov Bailey Speech, EU Retail Sales, US Non-Farm Payrolls, CA Unemployment Rate

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1712 / 1.1753

Support: 1.1575 / 1.1533

ECB minutes showed policymakers are considering another rate hike, possibly as early as September. EUR/USD trades cautiously ahead of Warsh’s speech.

Analyst View: Price fell yesterday but held above the 10-day MA. Warsh’s speech will determine whether EUR/USD breaks key support into lower ranges or remains in the recent high range.

Bias: Range watch

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3626 / 1.3668

Support: 1.3558 / 1.3516

Investors lowered expectations of a BoE rate hike. GBP/USD hovered near 1.3600 on Thursday, awaiting Warsh’s speech.

Analyst View: Closed at a one‑week low, testing below the 10‑day MA near 1.3600. Failure to reclaim may target the 20‑day MA near 1.3540.

Bias: Weak trading

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.78 / 159.98

Support: 159.11 / 158.90

Tokyo CPI accelerated slightly, raising expectations of a BoJ hike, but the yen's reaction was limited. USD/JPY extended its mild gains and was steady this morning.

Analyst View: Fourth straight daily gain, hitting one‑week highs. Momentum remains modest; Warsh’s speech could add upside impetus.

Bias: Mildly bullish

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

Resistance: 84.62 / 85.57

Support: 81.54 / 80.57

Oil extended its rebound as the U.S.–Iran MOU expired, limiting delivery through the Strait of Hormuz and raising supply concerns. Focus on Qatar–Iran talks.

Analyst View: Hovering near 10‑day MA. A breakout could extend the rebound above $84; failure would keep oil consolidating within the weekly range.

Bias: Weak rebound

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4639 / 4669

Support: 4545 / 4516

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 69.91 / 70.40

Support: 68.43 / 67.80

Gold fell below $4,600 on Thursday, awaiting Warsh’s speech.

Analyst View: Bulls defended $4,600. If Warsh is dovish, gold could rally above $4,640.

Bias: Wait-and-see

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53,998 / 54,382

Support: 53,151 / 52,773

U.S. indices rose on Thursday, boosted by Nvidia’s earnings. Dow gained over 100 points, awaiting Warsh’s speech for rate guidance.

Analyst View: Volatility increased, but Dow recovered above key MAs. If Warsh downplays hikes, Dow could challenge 54,000.

Bias: Mildly bullish

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,883 / 30,042

Support: 29,396 / 29,195

Nvidia’s strong forecast reinforced AI momentum, lifting tech stocks broadly. Nvidia shares +8.7%, adding $440B in market cap; Nasdaq +1.5%.

Analyst View: Broke above 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Warsh’s speech could accelerate rebound toward 30,000.

Bias: Improving momentum

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 81,866 / 82,324

Support: 79,466 / 78,892

Bitcoin edged higher on Thursday, topping $80,000 as Nvidia’s results lifted risk sentiment. The market awaits Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.

Analyst View: BTC/USD extended gains, testing above $80,000, the highest since mid‑May. Watch whether bulls turn cautious at prior highs; Warsh’s speech will influence momentum.

Bias: Cautiously bullish

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 10 regulatory licences and authorisations, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's CMA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, Cambodia's SERC and Colombia's SFC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.