Fed Delivers Hawkish Shockwave, BOE Keeps Markets on Edge?

ATFX Market Outlook - 17th September 2026

Fed Delivers Hawkish Shockwave, BOE Keeps Markets on Edge?

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

The Federal Reserve implemented a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate increase and indicated that additional tightening remains probable. Updated projections suggest one further hike in 2026, alongside upward revisions to both inflation and economic growth forecasts. The institution’s hawkish stance contributed to weaker risk sentiment: U.S. equities declined, gold and crude oil retreated, and the U.S. dollar reached a five-week high.

Market attention now shifts to the Bank of England, where rates are projected to remain unchanged. Investors will scrutinize the voting split and policy guidance for indications of divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee. Any adjustment in the BoE’s outlook could introduce heightened volatility in GBP and UK equity markets.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities declined following the Federal Reserve’s rate increase. U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the Dollar Index advanced 0.3% to a near five-week high.

Spot gold declined by 0.7% following a volatile session, despite an intraday recovery of over 1%. Oil prices retreated on news of increased Saudi crude supply via Oman, which alleviated concerns regarding Middle East supply risks.

Key Events Today:

17:00 EU CPI Final AUG **

19:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes ***

20:30 US Housing Starts & Building Permits AUG **

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

22:00 US Pending Home Sales AUG **

Sep 18 (GMT+8)

07:30 JP Core CPI AUG **

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***

14:00 EU GERMANY PPI YoY AUG **

14:00 GB Retail Sales MoM AUG **

14:30 BOJ Press Conference ***

18:30 ECB President Lagarde Speech  ***

21:15 US Industrial Production MoM AUG **

21:15 US Manufacturing Production MoM AUG **

22:00 US CB Leading Index AUG **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1489 / 1.1512

Support: 1.1436 / 1.1413

EUR/USD slipped below 1.1500 as higher U.S. yields and a stronger dollar followed the Fed’s hawkish guidance.

Analyst View: The pair has fallen to its lowest level since late July and may extend losses toward 1.1450 and below as markets continue to price in tighter Fed policy. Eurozone CPI data will be closely watched.

Bias: Bearish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3427 / 1.3451

Support: 1.3327 / 1.3304

Sterling remains near multi-week lows, with U.S. dollar strength prevailing ahead of the Bank of England policy meeting.

Analyst View: After its sharpest decline since June, the 1.3400 region has become an important resistance level. The BoE statement is likely to determine the pair’s next directional move.

Bias: Bearish

USDJPY

Resistance: 156.75 / 157.20

Support: 155.28 / 154.83

USD/JPY advanced for a third straight session after the Fed decision, with attention now shifting to the BoJ meeting.

Analyst View: Momentum remains constructive after the pair held above its 10-day moving average. A test of 156.90 is possible, although gains could be capped ahead of the BoJ announcement.

Bias: Short-Term Bullish

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

Resistance: 104.65 / 106.73

Support: 99.87 / 97.75

Oil prices moderated amid reports of increased Saudi supply and a smaller-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.

Analyst View: The pullback suggests some moderation in bullish momentum. As long as prices remain above support near the 10-day moving average around $98.90, the broader trend remains constructive.

Bias: High-Level Consolidation

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4370 / 4397

Support: 4256 / 4229

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 65.20 / 65.80

Support: 62.69 / 62.09

Gold experienced renewed pressure following the Federal Reserve’s reaffirmation of its tightening stance, although a modest rebound has occurred in Asian trading hours.

Analyst View: The rebound is testing resistance around $4,340 after yesterday’s volatile session. A sustained break above this area is needed to improve the near-term outlook.

Bias: Mild Recovery

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52,036 / 52,407

Support: 51,194 / 50,811

The Dow Jones underperformed relative to other major U.S. indices as Federal Reserve communications signaled that policy tightening may continue.

Analyst View: Following its steepest decline in nearly a month, bargain-hunting could help stabilise sentiment and limit further downside pressure in the near term.

Bias: Selling Pressure Easing

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,308 / 29,409

Support: 29,005 / 28,878

Large-cap technology stocks provided relative resilience for the Nasdaq, mitigating losses despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish communications.

Analyst View: Support emerged near early-August lows. A recovery above 29,000 is possible, although resistance around 29,300 remains a key hurdle.

Bias: Selling Pressure Easing

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 77,841 / 78,552

Support: 75,550 / 74,827

Bitcoin remains near a three-week low, weighed down by the Federal Reserve’s rate hike and persistent macroeconomic and regulatory pressures.

Analyst View: The 10-day moving average near $77,000 remains the key resistance level. Unless it breaks decisively, BTC is likely to remain in consolidation.

Bias: Mild Recovery

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