Fed Remarks Dampen Rate Hike Hopes Ahead of NFP Release

ATFX Market Outlook - 4th September 2026

Fed Remarks Dampen Rate Hike Hopes Ahead of NFP Release

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged if inflation continues to ease. His dovish comments reduced expectations of a September rate hike, pushing U.S. stocks and gold higher, while Treasury yields and the dollar declined.

Today’s Focus: The U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released tonight, the last major employment report before the Fed’s September meeting. Markets expect payrolls to rise by 58,000 (previous: -23,000), unemployment to remain at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% m/m (previous: 0.1%). The data could significantly impact rate expectations and market volatility.

Global Market Review

U.S. stocks rallied sharply on Thursday after Fed Governor Waller’s dovish remarks directly undermined expectations of a September rate hike. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.69%, while gold surged nearly 2% to a four-day high. Oil remained near its highest level since late July amid ongoing geopolitical developments.

Key Events Today:

16:50 BoE Gov Bailey Speech ***

17:00 EU Retail Sales JUL **

20:30 US Non Farm Payrolls AUG ***

20:30 US Unemployment Rate AUG ***

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate AUG **

Key Data and Events Coming Week(GMT+8)

Monday: US & Canada Holiday, GERMANY Industrial Production, EU GDP & Sentix Investor Confidence

Tuesday: JP GDP

Wednesday: CN CPI & PPI

Thursday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, GERMANY CPI, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US PPI & Initial Jobless Claims, US Existing Home Sales, OPEC Monthly Report

Friday: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, GB GDP, US CPI, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1669 / 1.1711

Support: 1.1574 / 1.1532

After posting its largest gain in two weeks during Thursday’s rebound, EUR/USD remained above the 1.1600 level in Friday’s Asian session as traders awaited the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.

Analyst View: The NFP report will likely determine whether the pair can stage a decisive breakout toward the 1.1700 handle or reverse lower toward the 20-day moving average near 1.1580.

Bias: Wait- and -see

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3599 / 1.3629

Support: 1.3475 / 1.3451

Sterling recovered part of its weekly losses and held above the lower boundary of its recent bearish channel.

Analyst View: After approaching the 20-day moving average, the pair retreated, suggesting bullish momentum remains limited. Initial resistance is seen in the 1.3550-1.3560 zone, where the 10-day and 20-day moving averages converge.

Bias: Wait- and -see

USDJPY

Resistance: 156.59 / 157.20

Support: 154.62 / 154.00

The yen extended its gains as traders increased bets on further Bank of Japan tightening, sending USD/JPY toward its August lows.

Analyst View: Bearish momentum has eased ahead of the U.S. jobs report, but as long as the pair remains below 156.00, downside pressure could persist toward previous lows unless strong U.S. employment data trigger renewed buying interest.

Bias: Consolidating At Lows

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

Resistance: 93.62 / 94.55

Support: 89.59 / 88.63

Oil prices extended gains, reaching their highest level since July 23 amid ongoing geopolitical concerns.

Analyst View: Crude is approaching previous highs, with the $93.50 area remaining a key resistance level. Traders will also monitor market sentiment following the U.S. payrolls release.

Bias: Watch Previous Highs

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4555 / 4609

Support: 4423 / 4380

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 69.14 / 70.17

Support: 64.83 / 63.83

Gold traded higher as lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar supported demand ahead of the U.S. jobs report.

Analyst View: With prices currently trading between key moving averages, a strong payrolls report could trigger a pullback, while weaker employment data may support a decisive move above 4500.

Bias: Rangebound Ahead of NFP

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53998 / 54383

Support: 53152 / 52773

The Dow posted its biggest daily gain in nearly a month as lower yields boosted risk sentiment after dovish Fed remarks.

Analyst View: Dow has broken above several key moving averages and returned to last week’s highs. Whether it can extend gains beyond 54,000 will largely depend on tonight’s payrolls report.

Bias: Cautiously Bullish

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29625 / 29757

Support: 29311 / 29206

The Nasdaq surged to a four-day high, supported by falling Treasury yields and improving market sentiment.

Analyst View: Climbed above its 10-day moving average and is testing the 20-day moving average. A breakout could open the door toward the 29,700 area and last week’s highs.

Bias: Cautiously Bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

83479/84073

79477/78862

Bitcoin surged on Thursday and topped $80,000 for the first time in nearly a week, on a good day overall for risk assets, which caught a bid from sliding U.S. Treasury yields.

Analyst View: BTC/USD recorded its strongest gain in almost two weeks and broke out of its recent consolidation range. Further upside could target the highs seen in early May, although market attention remains firmly on tonight’s NFP report.

Bias: Watch Previous Highs

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