Gold, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

US midterm elections & NFP – Gold

American voters head to the polls on Tuesday for the midterm elections, ahead of  Friday's high-impact NFP employment release. Consensus estimates forecast October payroll growth of approximately 65,000 jobs, reflecting a modest rebound after September's sluggish 29,000 reading, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady near 4.2%. Meanwhile, political focus centers on whether Congress shifts from unified Republican control to divided governance. Markets widely anticipate Democrats capturing the House of Representatives, whereas the Senate remains an intensely close call. A split Congress is historically viewed as the most market-friendly outcome, as policy gridlock limits aggressive regulatory overhauls and tariff escalations, allowing investors to redirect focus toward corporate earnings. Conversely, a Democratic sweep could weigh on equities through heavier corporate regulation, while dampening Treasury yields and the greenback.

Gold extended its downward trajectory toward a fresh one-year low at 3,870 late last week, though expectations remain for a potential bullish correction toward 3,940 and the round 4,000 mark. Conversely, a robust NFP print would reinforce expectations of extended central bank tightening, risking a decisive break below 3,870 toward secondary support at 3,790. The technical oscillators appear oversold so a pause of the decline is expected

BoE policy meeting – GBPUSD

The Bank of England decides on interest rates this Thursday, with market pricing and surveyed economists overwhelmingly anticipating a 25-basis-point hike that will lift Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.0%. This adjustment represents the central bank's first rate increase since August 2023, driven by UK headline inflation accelerating to 3.5% year-on-year in September against the official 2.0% objective. Persistent energy prices and geopolitical conflicts have amplified concerns over secondary price pressures, prompting Governor Andrew Bailey to emphasize the danger of delaying policy action. However, because this quarter-point move is already fully discounted by interest rate futures, traders are focusing on the Monetary Policy Committee voting split and fresh economic projections.

As a 25-basis-point increase is already baked into the price action, GBPUSD requires hawkish guidance to rally above the immediate 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3415 and reach the 1.3430 barrier. A sustained move above these levels would confirm scope for further upside. On the other hand, if the BoE delivers a rate hike while issuing cautious remarks regarding domestic growth and capping terminal rate bets, the pair could face downside pressure toward the 50-day SMA at 1.3370 and the 20-day SMA at 1.3310. Technical oscillators suggest stronger buying interest for now.

RBA policy meeting – AUDUSD

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision on Tuesday, with cash rate futures and consensus forecasts placing an 87% probability on a 25-basis-point hike to 4.85%. If confirmed, this benchmark will reach its highest level since 2008. Persistent domestic core inflation, resilient services costs, and firm fuel prices continue to compel policymakers toward a hawkish stance, overriding concerns regarding gradually rising unemployment. Nonetheless, financial markets are currently pricing in only a 50% chance of further policy tightening extending into 2027. Consequently, the rate hike alone will not guarantee a sustainable rally for the Australian currency. Bullish follow-through depends entirely on whether Governor Michele Bullock signals that further rate increases remain on the table or indicates that the RBA is ready to pause like its regional counterparts.

AUDUSD is currently fluctuating above the 0.7010 support level, while a break past the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 0.7240 to 0.6905 at 0.7030 could extend the rebound toward the 50- and 200-day SMAs at 0.7060 and the 0.7075 barrier. A standard quarter-point hike accompanied by neutral commentary runs the risk of a "sell-the-fact" reaction, threatening a breakdown below 0.7010 toward the 0.6990 mark and potentially the 0.6905 trough.