FOMC, Iran Escalation, and Rising Risk-Off Sentiment

Financial markets are entering a more defensive phase as monetary policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and weakening equity momentum converge.

The new Federal Reserve Chair has repeatedly reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation back under control. Against the current inflation backdrop, we do not expect a meaningful shift in the central bank's policy stance in the near term.

At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 is approaching correction territory, while the escalation involving Iran introduces an additional layer of geopolitical risk.

Taken together, these developments create a credible risk-off scenario that could persist for several days or potentially several weeks.

Within this environment, the Japanese yen may offer one of the more compelling opportunities. The currency remains relatively undervalued and could benefit from renewed demand for defensive assets, particularly if carry trades begin to unwind. Gold, by contrast, appears to be losing some of its traditional safe-haven appeal.

Key Technical Levels

Gold 

Resistance is located at 4,050–4,070, followed by 4,090. Strong support is expected in the 3,880–3,930 area.

USD/JPY 

Resistance is positioned at 164.00–164.50. Initial strong support is located near 161.60, followed by the 160.00 level.

A sustained move below these support levels could accelerate the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades and trigger a broader increase in market volatility.

EUR/USD 

The pair faces strong resistance in the 1.1400–1.1450 area. Initial support is located near 1.1330, followed by 1.1280.

By Born2trade market research department

Risk Disclaimer: All research and/or forecasts above reflect the author's personal opinion and cannot be treated as trading advice. Born2trade is not responsible for any trading results based on any information in this article. Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose all of your invested funds. Forex and CFD trading may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and, if necessary, seek independent advice.