Global Bond Selloff, Eyes on Central Banks & US ADP

ATFX Market Outlook - 2nd September 2026

Global Bond Selloff, Eyes on Central Banks & US ADP

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

The U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes on Iranian targets, escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and intensifying concerns over oil supply. Global bonds were sold off yesterday, while U.S. equities and gold extended declines, and crude oil accelerated higher.

Today’s focus: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada announce rate decisions in succession. This morning, the RBNZ raised rates by 25 basis points as expected; the BoC continues to balance slowing domestic growth against inflation pressures, with rates expected to remain unchanged. US ADP employment data (forecast 48K, previous 44K) will serve as a preview for Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls. Early Thursday morning, attention turns to the Fed Beige Book, which will provide insights into inflation trends, employment and wage growth, and consumer resilience—key references for assessing the Fed’s future rate path.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities extended declines on Tuesday: Dow ‑0.79%, S&P 500 ‑0.7%, Nasdaq ‑1.03%.U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve, strengthening the dollar.The escalating U.S.–Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and triggering a global bond sell-off.Gold fell nearly 3%, hitting a two‑week low, pressured by elevated yields and a stronger dollar.Crude oil surged more than 4% as renewed conflict reignited fears of supply disruption. 

Key Events Today:

09:30 AU GDP Q2 ***

10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision ***

11:00 RBNZ Press Conference ***

20:15 US ADP Employment Change AUG ***

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***

22:00 US Factory Orders JUL **

22:30 BoC Press Conference ***

22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

Sep 3 (GMT+8)

02:00 Fed Beige Book ***

07:00 AU Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

09:45 CN Services & Composite PMI AUG **

15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

17:00 EU PPI JUL **

20:30 US Balance of Trade JUL **

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

21:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

22:00 US ISM Services PMI AUG ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1626 / 1.1669

Support: 1.1532 / 1.1490

EUR/USD fell on Tuesday, erasing prior gains, pressured by escalating U.S.–Iran tensions. Despite Eurozone CPI hitting a three‑year high, the pair remained near two‑week lows.

Analyst View: Closed below the 20‑day MA at 1.1600, opening downside into the early August consolidation range.

Bias: Under pressure

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3552 / 1.3575

Support: 1.3475 / 1.3451

Rising bond yields and surging oil prices fueled inflation concerns, strengthening USD and pushing GBP/USD to its lowest since mid‑August.

Analyst View: Broke below the 20‑day MA, threatening the 1.3500 level and potentially targeting 1.3475/1.3451.

Bias: Under pressure

USDJPY

Resistance: 160.66 / 160.86

Support: 160.19 / 159.98

BoJ Governor declined to comment on the odds of a September hike, though markets still expect action. USD/JPY consolidated near highs last seen on July 31.

Analyst View: Price held above 160, with bulls extending gains. Sustained hold above 160 targets 160.66/160.86.

Bias: Mild rebound

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

Resistance: 93.62 / 94.55

Support: 89.59 / 88.63

U.S.–Iran conflict reignited supply fears, driving crude up over 4% past $90, its highest since June, extending gains into Wednesday.

Analyst View: Price closed at one‑week highs above 10‑day MA, now testing July highs near $93.50.

Bias: Caution at High‑level

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4380 / 4423

Support: 4236 / 4180

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 65.84 / 66.86

Support: 62.54 / 61.54

A global bond sell-off and a stronger USD pressured gold, which fell to its lowest level since August 7.

Analyst View: Broke below the 20‑day MA for the first time since late July, opening downside toward $4300. Short‑term trend depends on ADP employment data.

Bias: Under pressure

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53,151 / 53,529

Support: 52,394 / 52,022

U.S. strikes on Iran, surging oil, and rising yields dragged equities lower at September’s start.

Analyst View: Trading near August 20 lows. A break lower could deepen downside toward late‑July levels. Focus on ADP employment data.

Bias: Watching prior lows

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,209 / 29,313

Support: 28,870 / 28,768

Nasdaq led declines Tuesday as tech stocks fell broadly, with semiconductors and storage names under pressure.

Analyst View: Broke below key daily MAs, approaching August lows. Watch 28,870 support for potential stabilisation, with ADP data in focus.

Bias: Watching prior lows

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 78,519 / 79,210

Support: 75,590 / 74,911

Bitcoin fell over 2% on Tuesday as risk sentiment weakened amid surging oil prices and a global bond rout—the Strategy's resumption of purchases cushioned losses after two months.

Analyst View: Dropped to its lowest since August 23, capped by 10‑day MA resistance. Short‑term bias remains pressured, with $75,600 as key support.

Bias: Under pressure

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