Headway Daily Analysis | Close & Pre-Asia

Money is cautiously flowing back into risk assets after the sharp drop at the turn of the month. On Wall Street, major indices closed slightly higher, with buyers returning after the strong profit-taking seen in January, while the market reassesses the impact of a potentially more hawkish Fed and follows U.S. activity data. In Europe, the session saw a moderate recovery, with some indices closing in positive territory, supported by selective earnings results and the perception that part of the price adjustment in equities and metals has already taken place.

FX: The dollar remains relatively firm but without setting new highs, reflecting a cautious environment. The market is still pricing in fewer rate cuts than a few weeks ago, but without betting on an additional aggressive shift, keeping the DXY at elevated yet stable levels.

Commodities: Gold and silver continue trying to stabilize after last week’s historic drop. Gold fluctuated near the USD 4,700–4,800 area with modest daily moves, as investors debate whether the correction has gone far enough or if there is still room for further profit-taking before a new equilibrium forms. Silver remained extremely volatile, with wide intraday swings, but without repeating the more than 30% crash, suggesting that the sharpest phase of the adjustment may be behind us.

Bitcoin: BTC remains under pressure, trading in the USD 78–80k range after a weekend of liquidations totaling around USD 2.5 billion in Bitcoin and crypto-derivative positions. The asset is still in correction mode, with the market undergoing deleveraging and risk rebalancing among the dollar, fixed income, metals, and crypto.

PRE-ASIA (Later Today)

Bias: neutral to slightly cautious. Asian futures point to a mixed open, with regional investors reacting to partial relief in global equities while staying alert to volatility in metals, dollar strength, and upcoming data from China, Japan, and Australia. The Asian session is likely to focus on developments in the gold and silver correction, USD behavior against JPY and AUD, and any new signals on the global interest-rate path, which could move equities, currencies, and commodities right from the open.

Have a great session, everyone! Stay disciplined 🎯

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