Iran Considers U.S. Ceasefire Proposal; Optimism Emerges Amid Uncertainty

ATFX Market Outlook - 26th March 2026

Iran Considers U.S. Ceasefire Proposal; Optimism Emerges Amid Uncertainty

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

Diplomatic Developments: The U.S. has presented a 15-point proposal to Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated on Wednesday that Tehran is reviewing the proposal to end the current war, though he noted Iran has "no intention" of holding formal negotiations to resolve the conflict.

Today’s Focus: Monitor any updates regarding the negotiating stances of both the U.S. and Iran, as well as shifts in the regional situation. On the macro front, watch U.S. Initial Jobless Claims; expectations see a rise to 210k (prev. 205k), signaling that the labor market is feeling the weight of dampened confidence caused by the Middle East crisis.

Global Market Review

Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday as hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East grew. Reports that Iran is reviewing the U.S. proposal boosted sentiment. The Dow gained 0.66%, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq added 0.77%.

The USD rose against major peers as traders weighed global inflation trends and remained sceptical about a swift resolution in Iran. Gold continued its modest climb, aided by falling oil prices, which eased inflation fears and capped rate hike expectations. Spot Gold settled 0.7% at $4,505.061/oz. International Oil prices saw a slight rebound as the market remains in a wait-and-see mode following Iran's evaluation of the peace plan.

Key Events Today:

15:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence APR **

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

23:00 US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index MAR **

Tomorrow

15:00 GB Retail Sales FEB **

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final MAR ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1629 / 1.1667

Support: 1.1509 / 1.1472

ECB President Lagarde noted that even if the current energy-driven inflation is transitory, modest policy tightening may be required. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in Germany’s March IFO index highlighted downside risks to growth, pushing the pair toward 1.1550.

Analyst View: EURUSD accelerated its retreat yesterday, breaking below the 20-day moving average. The key focus is now on the 10-day moving average near 1.1540; a break below it could threaten 1.1500.

Bias: Mildly Bearish below 1.1590

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3415 / 1.3446

Support: 1.3317 / 1.3286

With UK CPI at 3% and Core CPI rising to 3.2%, price pressures remain sticky, leading markets to expect "higher for longer" rates. Despite this, the pair continued its decline, hovering below 1.3400.

Analyst View: Following two days of correction, the pair is testing its 10-day moving average. Holding this support could provide momentum for another look at 1.3400; otherwise, it targets 1.3300.

Bias: Bearish bias below 1.3380

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.90 / 160.18

Support: 158.99 / 158.71

The Yen weakened as safe-haven demand for the USD persisted. Traders are scanning headlines for any breakthroughs in U.S.-Iran talks.

Analyst View: USDJPY closed at a four-day high, reclaiming the 10-day moving average. As it enters this month’s peak range, watch for bulls to turn cautious.

Bias: Consolidation at high levels.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

Resistance: 94.96 / 97.95

Support: 85.42 / 82.48

Oil prices edged higher as the market balanced the hope of a ceasefire against Iran’s "high bar" for negotiations and its current reluctance to engage in talks.

Analyst View: The 20-day moving average has acted as a floor this week. However, the 10-day moving average near $94 remains a ceiling. Expect range-bound trading between these levels in the absence of further news.

Bias:  Range-bound between $87 – $94.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4670 / 4805

Support: 4370 / 4234

Spot Silver

Resistance: 75.51 / 78.93

Support: 67.86 / 64.39

Gold rose for a second day as falling Treasury yields offset USD strength. While it touched the $4,600 mark, uncertainties about the progress of negotiations may limit a larger rally.

Analyst View: Rebound remains modest. After failing to clear $4,600 yesterday, bulls will target this level again today. Major resistance sits at the 10-day moving average near $4,690.

Bias: Mild rebound below $4,600.

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 47392 / 47988

Support: 46211 / 45464

Markets were driven by shifting geopolitical sentiment. Early optimism from the ceasefire report gave way to a wait-and-see stance following Iran's cautious remarks.

Analyst View: The Dow gave back some gains late yesterday but closed at a five-day high near the 10-day moving average. A break above 46,700 is needed to extend the rally toward 47,000.

Bias: Mild rebound below 46,700.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 24465 / 24737

Support: 23854 / 23586

Despite falling yields, tech stocks saw a "high open, low close" pattern. Amazon and Nvidia provided support, but the semiconductor sector lagged.

Analyst View: Having met resistance at 24,350 (10-day MA) for two days, failure to break out could see a slide back below 24,000.

Bias: Mildly Bearish below 24,350.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 71690/72710

Support: 69407/68370

Bitcoin ticked up slightly on Wednesday, holding above the $71,000 level as risk assets caught a bid on hopes of Middle East de-escalation, despite Iran rejecting a proposed U.S. ceasefire.

Analyst View: BTC closed at its highest level in over a week, but has twice faced stiff resistance above 71,800. If this persists, expect a shift toward high-level consolidation. It must hold the 10 and 20-day moving averages to defend the $70,000 support.

Bias: High-level consolidation above $70,000.

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