Market Digests US-Iran Agreement; Eyes on Two Central Banks' Decisions

ATFX Market Outlook - 16th June 2026

Market Digests US-Iran Agreement; Eyes on Two Central Banks' Decisions

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

US-Iran Breakthrough: President Trump announced a preliminary agreement to end the Gulf War, with an official signing on Friday. In response, US equities rose, gold gained, and crude oil prices fell.

Today’s Focus: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1%, a 31-year high, a further move that would support the yen. The RBA is anticipated to hold rates following previous hikes.

Global Market Review

US stock markets soared on Monday, with the Dow up 0.9% to a record, the S&P 500 up 1.66%, and the Nasdaq up 3.07%. Treasury yields fell to a one-month low, and the US dollar dropped against the Euro and Pound. The US-Iran deal eased rate-hike concerns, pushing gold to a one-week high and causing crude oil to drop by over 4%.

Key Events Today:

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***

12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***

13:30 RBA Press Conference ***

14:30 BOJ Press Conference ***

17:00 EU GERMANY ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN **

20:30 US Building Permits MAY **

20:30 US Housing Starts MAY **

June 17th (GMT+8)

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***

14:00 GB CPI & PPI MAY ***

17:00 EU CPI Final MAY ***

20:30 US Retail Sales MAY ***

22:00 US Pending Home Sales MAY **

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1637 / 1.1658

Support: 1.1571 / 1.1543

The US-Iran peace agreement reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, causing EUR/USD to rise to a one-week high. It later reversed at 1.1622 but ticked slightly higher again this morning, nearing 1.1600.

Analyst View: The pair briefly broke 1.1600 yesterday but couldn't maintain it. The failure to surpass the 20-day moving average (MA) has limited momentum. However, positive geopolitical developments could prompt bulls to test this key MA resistance again.

Bias: Moderately Bullish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3457 / 1.3483

Support: 1.3374 / 1.3348

GBP/USD bounced back during the day on the US-Iran ceasefire but ended lower near 1.3410. The market is anticipating UK economic data, including CPI, which could influence BOE rate hike expectations amid the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Analyst View: The pair peaked at 1.3461 yesterday but fell below the 20-day MA after being rejected. The focus is on whether it can reclaim this resistance; a failure may prompt testing of the 10-day MA and challenge the sub-1.3400 level.

Bias: Moderately Bullish

USDJPY

Resistance: 160.44 / 160.59

Support: 159.94 / 159.78

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates today, as markets await any surprise from the BoJ stance. Markets are monitoring the impact of the US-Iran agreement on the BOJ’s rate guidance. USD/JPY holds above 160.00 despite a broader dollar pullback.

Analyst View: Despite a weaker US dollar, USD/JPY gained for two days, supported by the 20-day MA. However, it retraced this morning ahead of the BOJ decision, as traders awaited the central bank's stance. A hawkish tone could further weaken the pair’s short-term momentum.

Bias: Moderately Weak

US Crude Oil Futures (JUL)

Resistance: 83.84 / 85.12

Support: 79.79 / 78.54

The US-Iran peace agreement could lead to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, causing a drop in crude prices. WTI crude fell over 4% yesterday, briefly dipping below $80/bbl.

Analyst View: Crude Oil hit its lowest since April 17, with losses held in check as investors monitor the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The $79/bbl low is key support.

Bias: Consolidation at Lows

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4386/4443

Support: 4270/4212

Spot Silver

Resistance: 70.84/71.97

Support: 67.93/67.05

Gold climbed above $4,300 for the third straight session, and silver reached a one-week high above $71, driven by the US-Iran agreement, which eased inflation and Fed rate-hike concerns.

Analyst View: Gold opened higher yesterday but didn’t break out significantly, suggesting a cautious market awaiting the US-Iran accord and Federal Reserve policy decisions. It is expected to trade within its 10- and 20-day moving averages, with the 20-day MA near $4,400 acting as key resistance.

Bias: Moderately Bullish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 51865 / 52074

Support: 51406 / 51204

Market sentiment improved on Monday as Washington and Tehran confirmed a preliminary peace agreement. The three major US stock indices rose sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new record high.

Analyst View: Dow futures peaked at 51,950 yesterday, establishing immediate resistance. As markets price in geopolitical factors, further record highs are possible.  

Bias: Bullish at Highs

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30756 / 31053

Support: 30377 / 30081

Big tech stocks rallied after a tentative US-Iran peace agreement, with Meta up over 4%, and Nvidia and Amazon gaining more than 3%, leading to the Nasdaq's best single-day performance since March.

Analyst View: Nasdaq surged yesterday, breaking above its daily moving averages and nearing its previous record highs. Today’s focus is whether the peak around 30,760 will act as resistance.

Bias: Bullish at Highs

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 68483/7026

Support: 64912/62703

Bitcoin trimmed some gains on Monday but stayed positive, rebounding from recent losses as a U.S.-Iran peace deal boosted risk-driven markets.

Analyst View: BTC/USD posted a third consecutive gain, reaching its highest since June 3, but failed to maintain above the 20-day MA. Rejection here may slow down momentum and target the 10-day MA, while a break above could aim for $70,000.

Bias: Moderately Bullish

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