Markets shrug off Middle East tensions; gold rebounds on dip buying

ATFX Market Outlook - 10th July 2026

Markets shrug off Middle East tensions; gold rebounds on dip buying

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted Thursday, putting further strain on the three‑week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. However, markets judged escalation risks as temporarily limited. President Trump said Iran had contacted Washington seeking a deal after fresh U.S. strikes. Markets focused on the limited geopolitical impact: U.S. tech stocks rebounded while gold recovered.

Today’s focus: Economic data is relatively light. Watch Germany’s June CPI final (YoY expected at 2.3%) and Canada’s employment data (unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.6%) for the main trading cues.t 6.6%).

Global Market Review

U.S. equities closed higher Thursday, led by the tech sector. Micron lifted chip stocks, offsetting Middle East concerns and helping the Dow rise 0.26%, the S&P 500 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%.

The dollar fell for a second day, while gold rose over 1% after hitting one-week lows, supported by dip buying. U.S. crude oil futures fell nearly 4% as traders awaited further developments in U.S.–Iran tensions.

Key Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final JUN **

16:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report ** 

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate JUN ** 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: OPEC Monthly Report

Tuesday: US CPI, Fed Chair Warsh Testimony

Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, EU Industrial Production, US PPI, BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

Thursday: Fed Beige Book, GB GDP, GB Industrial &  Manufacturing Production, US Retail Sales & Initial Jobless Claims, US Pending Home Sales

Friday: EU CPI, US Housing Starts & Building Permits, US Manufacturing & Industrial Production, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1473 / 1.1490

Support: 1.1417 / 1.1399

EUR/USD extended gains to 1.1440 in early Asia Friday, supported by dollar weakness. Meanwhile, ECB minutes showed stubborn inflation.

Analyst View: After two days of gains, the pair is testing 20-day MA resistance. A breakout could target last week’s high at 1.1473, while failure may keep the pair range-bound. 1.1473.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3461 / 1.3498

Support: 1.3377 / 1.3339

Sterling broke above 1.3400 on Thursday, driven by the UK leadership transition and rising expectations for further BoE hikes.

Analyst View: Holding near highs since June 17. Watch resistance at 1.3460–1.3500.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

USDJPY

Resistance: 162.45 / 162.71

Support: 161.60 / 161.34

USD/JPY retreated from 40‑year highs Thursday as dollar weakness and intervention fears weighed.

Analyst View: Extended pullback broke below 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Failure to hold could pressure the pair back into last week’s low range.

Bias: Short‑term correction

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

Resistance: 73.97 / 75.06

Support: 69.43 / 68.38

Oil fell after two days of strong gains as inflation and demand concerns resurfaced. Traders assessed the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Analyst View: Consolidating between 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Without fresh geopolitical headlines, expect range‑bound trade.

Bias: Range consolidation

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4173 / 4203

Support: 4073 / 4042

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 61.46 / 62.38

Support: 58.52 / 57.61

Gold rebounded above $4,100 Thursday, supported by bargain buying after recent declines. Silver also recovered.

Analyst View: Testing 20‑day MA resistance. A breakout could target $4,200; failure may cap prices below $4,100.

Bias: Weak rebound

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52,830 / 53,069

Support: 52,069 / 51,834

Despite the U.S.–Iran conflict, markets treated the escalation as contained. As a result, U.S. equities rebounded, with the Dow ending its losing streak.

Analyst View: Reclaimed above the 10‑day MA. Sustained strength could retest record highs.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,896 / 30,087

Support: 29,312 / 29,071

Semiconductor stocks rebounded strongly Thursday, helping the Nasdaq rise over 1%. Large tech names mostly closed higher.

Analyst View: Nasdaq reclaimed above 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Short‑term signals improved, but watch trendline resistance from last week’s highs.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 64,663 / 65,467

Support: 62,018 / 61,201

Bitcoin rose on Thursday, supported by improved risk sentiment and falling oil prices after Trump said Iran had contacted Washington to seek a deal.

Analyst View: BTC/USD ended its two‑day decline, breaking above the 10‑day MA after holding the 20‑day MA. Next test is last week’s high near $64,700.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

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