Middle East Easing Sparks Cautious Optimism; Trump’s Speech Drives Volatility

ATFX Market Outlook - 2nd April 2026

Middle East Easing Sparks Cautious Optimism; Trump’s Speech Drives Volatility

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       Trump signals end to Iran conflict: Trump stated war goals are "nearing completion" with a 2–3-week timeline for resolution, fueling cautious market optimism.

·       Retail sales hit 7-month high: U.S. February retail sales surged, though rising gas prices may dampen future consumption and impact upcoming labor data.

·       Focus on employment data: Markets are eyeing today’s jobless claims (exp. 212K) and Challenger Job Cuts as a prelude to tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls.

Global Market Review

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, led by significant gains in tech giants like Alphabet, after Trump hinted that the Middle East conflict might be nearing an end. The Dow Jones closed up 0.49%, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.16%. U.S. Treasury prices edged lower, while the U.S. Dollar fell against major currencies for the second consecutive session, hitting a one-week low. Market volatility is expected to moderate as signs of a potential ceasefire increase.

Gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive day, supported by a weakening dollar. Meanwhile, other risk assets generally rallied, bolstered by cautious optimism regarding a de-escalation in the Middle East. Spot gold closed up 1.88% at $4,757.30 per ounce. Conversely, international oil prices closed lower following Trump’s remarks that the U.S. would soon end the war with Iran.

Key Events Today:

20:30 US Balance of Trade FEB **20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

TomorrowAustralia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, United States, Hong Kong Holiday08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final MAR **09:45 CN Services & Composite PMI MAR **20:30 US Non Farm Payrolls MAR ***21:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final MAR **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1588/1.1611Support: 1.1518/1.1490

EURUSD slipped below 1.1600 as risk appetite wavered. Despite earlier optimism, Trump’s latest speech lacked a concrete timeline for ending military operations in Iran, triggering a short-term sell-off as markets realized the "peace premium" may have been priced in too aggressively.

Analyst View: EURUSD is currently testing the mid-rail of its ascending channel. The failed attempt to hold 1.1600 shifts focus back to the 1.1542 pivot. Without a clear de-escalation roadmap, technicals suggest a period of defensive consolidation within the 1.1518 support zone.

Bias: Upside limited below 1.1600

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3320/1.3357Support: 1.3197/1.3161

Sterling faced a "reality check" as BoE Governor Bailey cautioned that markets have been too aggressive in pricing in rate hikes. While initial optimism over Trump's de-escalation hints lifted the pair, the lack of a concrete peace roadmap in his subsequent speech caused the British Pound to surrender its early gains.

Analyst View: GBPUSD remains trapped in a downtrend channel, failing to break above the 1.3320 (0.5 Fib) resistance. The "hawkish pushback" from the BoE, combined with fading geopolitical euphoria, suggests the pair is entering a high-volatility defensive phase. Bulls must defend the 1.3161 floor to avoid a deeper structural slide.

Bias: Upside capped below 1.3340

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.78/160.14Support: 158.65/158.29

USDJPY surged back above the 159.00 handle during the Thursday Asian session, currently trading around 159.22. Trump’s national address on the Iran conflict reignited "Greenback" demand, though persistent fears of a Japanese government intervention continue to cap gains near the recent highs.

Analyst View: USDJPY has bounced off its channel floor, fueled by a hawkish reaction to Trump’s geopolitical stance. While the primary trend remains bullish, the pair is entering an "intervention danger zone" near 160.00.

Bias: Upside limited below 159

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

Resistance: 108.31/113.27Support: 98.22/93.18

WTI rose 3% to $103.16 after Trump’s national address. While the President claimed the war is "pretty much winding up," he threatened to "obliterate" Iran's energy facilities if no deal is reached. Meanwhile, the UAE's push for a UN resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force has re-ignited supply fears.

Analyst View: WTI has executed a violent "bullish engulfing" bounce off the 98.22 (0.5 Fib) floor, invalidating yesterday's brief dip below $100. Price is now re-testing the 103.27 (0.618 Fib) pivot. Failure to clear this barrier could trap WTI in a high-volatility range, but a breakout would target the 108.31 resistance zone.

Bias: Range-bound at elevated levels

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4815/4893Support: 4571/4495

Spot Silver

Resistance: 78.91/82.34Support: 67.83/64.35

Gold sharply reversed, dropping over $100 to trade near $4,695 after reaching an intraday high of $4,800. While a weaker dollar initially supported gains, Trump’s national address—praising military success rather than announcing an immediate ceasefire—caused a significant unwinding of safe-haven positions.

Analyst View: Gold has reached a "sentiment ceiling" at 4,800, causing a swift retracement. Falling below the $4,741 level indicates that the parabolic momentum is slowing down. Expect intense consolidation as the market adjusts to the "de-escalation vs energy strike" risks.

Bias: Upside limited below $4,800

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 47146/47789Support: 46351/45697

The Dow rose 0.48% to 46,565.74. Optimism centered on Trump’s "America First" exit strategy from Iran, which buoyed industrial sentiment, although a 3.9% slide in energy stocks limited the blue-chip index's upside potential.

Analyst View: The Dow is effectively "climbing the wall of worry" within its descending channel, successfully reclaiming the 46,351 (0.236 Fib) pivot. Momentum is building toward a tactical test of the 47,146 resistance level. A sustained breakout here is mandatory to signal a structural trend reversal.

Bias: Upside limited below 46,500

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 24506/24898Support: 23630/23232

NAS100 climbed 1.16% to 21,840.95. Tech heavyweights outperformed as Intel's $14.2B buyback and SpaceX IPO rumors provided fresh catalysts, while fading energy-driven inflation fears encouraged investors to rotate back into growth names.

Analyst View: The index has initiated a high-velocity V-reversal from its channel floor, reclaiming the 23,630 (0.236 Fib) pivot. Momentum is aggressively targeting the 24,506 (0.5 Fib) supply zone. A daily close above this resistance is necessary to confirm a definitive trend shift.

Bias: Mildly bullish above 24,000

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 70488/71792

Support: 66244/64963

Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $68,478.6, maintaining its March momentum after snapping a five-month losing streak. While Trump's "ceasefire" claims on Truth Social provided a risk-on tailwind, Google’s white paper warning of a 2029 quantum threat to Bitcoin's encryption capped the upside.

Analyst View: BTC is carving a bullish path within its ascending channel, successfully absorbing "Q-Day" FUD. The decisive hold above $67,570 confirms structural resilience. With volatility expanding, a high-conviction breakout past $70,488 is now the primary objective for bulls.

Bias: Bullish above $67,500.

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