Middle East tensions spark market sell-off; all eyes on U.S. CPI tonight.

ATFX Market Outlook - 10th June 2026

Middle East tensions spark market sell-off; all eyes on U.S. CPI tonight.

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. strikes on Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East and increased risk aversion, contributing to market weakness ahead of the U.S. CPI data. Tonight’s CPI release could hit 4.2%, the highest since September 2022, which could affect Fed policy expectations and increase volatility. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady, but its statement may impact the CAD amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

Global Market Review

Global markets fell yesterday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down sharply amid a decline in semiconductor stocks, indicating weakness in the tech sector. The U.S. dollar weakened, easing pressure on other assets, while gold reached a two-month low and crude oil initially dropped before rebounding.

Key Events Today:

09:30 CN CPI & PPI MAY **

20:30 US CPI MAY ***

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***

22:30 BoC Press Conference ***

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

June 11th

20:00 OPEC Monthly Report **

20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision ***

20:30 US PPI MAY ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

20:45 ECB Press Conference ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1564 / 1.1576

Support: 1.1509 / 1.1496

EUR/USD edged higher on a weaker U.S. dollar, but gains were capped by Middle East tensions. Focus remains on the ECB rate decision and U.S. CPI.

Analyst View: EUR/USD tested above 1.1570 yesterday but failed to hold gains, trading below 1.1550 this morning. If U.S. CPI data strengthens the dollar, the pair may revisit this week’s lows near 1.1500.

Bias: Hovering at low levels

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3406 / 1.3430

Support: 1.3333 / 1.3302

GBP/USD gained for a second day as a weaker USD and strong UK retail sales supported Sterling, though resistance remains below 1.3400.

Analyst View: Despite two days of gains, GBP/USD’s rebound remains weak, trading below key moving averages. Intraday direction hinges on U.S. CPI data.

Bias: Short-term bearish

USDJPY

Resistance: 160.53 / 160.62

Support: 160.00 / 159.90

USD/JPY held above 160.00, with muted trading amid possible intervention, while U.S. strikes boosted dollar demand despite Japan’s PPI surprise.

Analyst View: The pair continues to trade moderately within its upper range. However, traders should note that tonight’s U.S. CPI release could break this narrow, range-bound pattern. As the price approaches 160.50, it is meeting resistance, suggesting caution at these elevated levels.

Bias: Cautious at highs

US Crude Oil Futures (JUL)

Resistance: 91.67 / 92.93

Support: 86.35 / 85.11

Crude oil prices rebounded in the Asian session after facing earlier pressure due to U.S. strikes against Iran, triggered by the downing of an American helicopter. Prices had dropped to their lowest since April 21 after President Trump called for an end to hostilities between the two countries.

Analyst View: Crude oil recovered from $85.95 but remains in a holding pattern, awaiting updates from the Middle East and the U.S. CPI report. Price is expected to fluctuate between support and the 10-day average.

Bias: Range-bound

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4312/4340

Support: 4171/4137

Spot Silver

Resistance: 70.84/73.58

Support: 61.58/59.40

Rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and U.S. strikes against Iran led to a decline in gold prices. Investors are cautious ahead of tonight's crucial U.S. CPI release, which could affect interest rate expectations and trigger volatility in gold.

Analyst View: Gold hit a multi-month low below $4,200 this morning. Traders are awaiting guidance from the U.S. CPI. If prices fall further, $4,100 is key support; a rebound may target resistance above $4,300.

Bias: Wait-and-see nearly $4,200

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 50993 / 51152

Support: 50518 / 50319

The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed yesterday. The Dow recorded modest gains, but growing caution ahead of key U.S. inflation data capped its upside, as investors awaited signals on future Federal Reserve policy.

Analyst View: The Dow was volatile, bouncing off its 20-day moving average to close near its 10-day average. The U.S. CPI release will guide the direction of rates and prices.

Bias: Neutral / Wait-and-see

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29926 / 30247

Support: 28312 / 28048

Semiconductor stocks reversed lower, fueling broad weakness across the tech sector. Large-cap tech stocks posted widespread losses, with Apple down more than 3% and Tesla down 3%. The Nasdaq fell more than 4% intraday, reaching its lowest level since May 6.

Analyst View: Nasdaq recovered more than half of yesterday’s loss. The 29,000 level is key; U.S. CPI may determine whether it retests the lows or challenges resistance at 29,600.

Bias: Neutral / Wait-and-see

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Resistance: 64955/67606

Support: 58042/56000

Bitcoin fell as institutional investors continued to reduce spot Bitcoin ETF holdings, though at a slower pace than in previous weeks.

Analyst View: Bitcoin remained range-bound at recent lows but saw accelerating downward momentum. Traders should watch for a potential drop toward last week's lows, with a possible retest of levels below $60,000.

Bias: Under pressure at low levels

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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