U.S. CPI shows persistent inflation pressure, Market awaits PPI

ATFX Market Outlook - 13th May 2026

 U.S. CPI shows persistent inflation pressure, Market awaits PPI

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

Consumer inflation in the U.S. further intensified in April, with CPI rising 3.8% year-on-year. This figure exceeded expectations and marked the highest level since May 2023, leading markets to increase bets on a Fed rate hike this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have raised the probability of a rate hike by year-end to approximately 30%.

Focus for Today: Attention turns to the Eurozone’s preliminary Q1 GDP, expected at 0.8% year-on-year; markets will watch for any upward revisions. Energy shocks from the war are significantly weighing on the Eurozone economy, but accelerating inflation is also creating pressure for rate hikes. Additionally, the U.S. April PPI report will be released, revealing if inflationary pressure is moving downstream. While monthly growth is expected to remain at 0.5%, the annual rate is forecast to accelerate to 4.9% (from 4.0%), signaling future CPI upward pressure and further rate hike bets.

Global Market Review

U.S. indices saw mixed performance on Wednesday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated from record highs due to hotter-than-expected inflation data and a lack of optimism regarding the Middle East. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.16%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7%.

U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the U.S. Dollar climbed for a second consecutive session, marking its largest single-day gain since April 2. Gold prices were under pressure yesterday as hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal faded and U.S. inflation moved higher. Oil prices recorded consecutive gains, with WTI crude reaching a four-day high as the United States and Iran remain divided over proposals to end the war in the Middle East.

Key Events Today:

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***

09:30 AU Wage Price Index QoQ Q1 **

17:00 EU GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1 ***

17:00 EU Industrial Production MoM MAR **

20:30 US PPI MoM APR ***

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **  

Tomorrow

03:15 ECB President Lagarde Speech ***

14:00 GB GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1 ***

14:00 GB Industrial Production MoM MAR **

14:00 GB Manufacturing Production MoM MAR **

20:30 US Retail Sales MoM APR ***   

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***  

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1763/1.1780

Support: 1.1709/1.1693

 The Euro recorded its largest single-day drop since mid-April yesterday following the strong U.S. CPI report.

Analyst View: The pair fell below the 1.1700 level and tested the lower bound of its recent range. While the Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment was better than expected, the divergence between the Fed and ECB continues to weigh on the pair.

Bias: Short-term Bearish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3580/1.3610

Support: 1.3485/1.3455

 UK average weekly earnings (including bonuses) rose 5.6%, the highest since 2008. Combined with the hot U.S. inflation data, GBP/USD fell on Tuesday, testing the 1.3500 level.

Analyst View: Sterling recorded its largest drop since early April, hitting its lowest point since late April before recovering some ground. Focus remains on whether it can alleviate current downward pressure at the 1.3500 threshold.

Bias: Short-term Bearish

USDJPY

Resistance: 158.28 / 158.62

Support: 157.17 / 156.83

Driven by buying interest, USD/JPY rose for a second consecutive day, reaching a four-day high. Traders are digesting comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent regarding excessive volatility in the FX market.

Analyst View: The pair continues to hold near four-day highs this morning. Watch for resistance at last week’s high of 157.94; bulls may turn cautious as the price nears 158.00.

Bias: Mildly Bullish

US Crude Oil Futures (JUN)

Resistance: 103.44 / 107.29

Support: 98.76 / 94.98

Oil prices extended their rebound as concerns over a prolonged Iran conflict intensified following Trump’s rejection of the peace proposal. WTI neared $103 yesterday but failed to hold, though it still marked a four-day high.

Analyst View: Yesterday, the price broke through the key resistance at the 10-day moving average, technically opening up room for further gains. However, focus remains on guidance from shifting headlines and resistance above the $103 level.

Bias:  Mildly Bullish

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4743/4789

Support: 4650/4593

Spot Silver

Resistance: 89.12/90.56

Support: 84.44/83.03

Gold prices dropped yesterday as the U.S. Dollar and yields rose. The lack of progress in Middle East peace talks also dampened sentiment

Analyst View:  Gold fell back below the 10 and 20-day moving averages. If it fails to reclaim $4,700, the short-term trend may shift from bullish to neutral or bearish.

Bias: Short-term Bearish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 50513/51145

Support: 49075/48432

U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Bank stocks, which had been under pressure for several days, rose collectively, leading the Dow to outperform and close slightly higher. However, the larger-than-expected rise in U.S. inflation limited the index's rebound.

Analyst View: The Dow reached a four-day closing high yesterday, with technical signals showing slight improvement after consecutive gains. However, recent increases have been modest, and bulls still need to clear the critical 50,000 level to break out of the current range-bound pattern.

Bias: Trading within a High-Level Range

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29484/29868

Support: 28607/28216

Investors engaged in profit-taking as the strong Q1 earnings season neared its end. Previously dominant semiconductor stocks pulled back collectively, while mega-cap tech stocks saw mixed performance: Tesla fell over 2%, and Microsoft and Amazon both dropped more than 1%. Consequently, the Nasdaq retreated from its record highs.

Analyst View: The NAS100 index snapped its winning streak yesterday to close lower but remains within its elevated range. Current focus is on whether the index tests levels below the 29,000 mark, which would likely increase short-term corrective pressure. Markets will continue to look to today's U.S. PPI data for key guidance.

Bias: Trading within a High-Level Range

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 81891/82807

Support: 79791/78860

Bitcoin stays under pressure as efforts to resolve the Iran war show little sign of progress and as the recent rally in tech stocks pauses.

Analyst View: Yesterday, BTC/USD recorded its largest single-day drop in a week and is currently testing support at the 10-day moving average. A break below this level would open up a lower trading range below the $80,000 mark, potentially leading to a further decline toward the 20-day moving average support.

Bias: Short-term Bearish

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