PPI Confirms Cooling Inflation; Eyes on U.S. Retail Sales

ATFX Market Outlook - 16th July 2026

PPI Confirms Cooling Inflation; Eyes on U.S. Retail Sales

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. June PPI posted the largest decline in 14 months, driven mainly by lower final demand energy prices. The data further delayed expectations for Fed rate hikes. The Fed Beige Book noted overall economic improvement, steady job growth, and slightly easing inflation.

Today’s focus: UK May GDP, with the three‑month growth rate expected at 0.5% (prior 0.7%). A steady pace would support rate hike expectations. Tonight, U.S. June retail sales are expected to slow to 0.2% (prior 0.9%), reflecting weaker consumption under high inflation.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities closed higher Wednesday, supported by weaker PPI and strong Q2 earnings. Dow +0.29%, S&P 500 +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.62%.

The dollar fell against major currencies as PPI reinforced signs of cooling inflation.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,057.81/oz after intraday losses of nearly 1%.

Oil edged higher as markets weighed continued U.S. airstrikes on Iran.

Key Events Today:

14:00 GB GDP MAY ***

14:00 GB Industrial Production MAY **

20:30 US Retail Sales JUN ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

22:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM JUN **

July 17 (GMT+8)

17:00 EU CPI Final JUN **

20:30 US Housing Starts JUN **

20:30 US Building Permits JUN **

21:15 US Manufacturing & Industrial Production MoM JUN **

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JUL ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1496 / 1.1510

Support: 1.1459 / 1.1448

EUR/USD touched its highest since June 18 as weak U.S. PPI pressured the dollar, extending gains toward 1.1500.

Analyst View: Higher highs signal room for further upside. A break above 1.1500 would open higher ranges.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3585 / 1.3621

Support: 1.3498 / 1.3461

Sterling surged by over 1% on Wednesday, its largest gain in four months, breaking above 1.3500 and reaching its highest level since May 12.

Analyst View: Breakout shifts targets toward early May highs. UK GDP and U.S. retail sales will determine whether GBP/USD can challenge 1.3600.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

USDJPY

Resistance: 162.45 / 162.71

Support: 161.86 / 161.60

USD/JPY fluctuated near 162 on Wednesday, pressured by dollar weakness but still near multi‑decade lows.

Analyst View: Consolidating around key MAs. Holding the 20‑day MA at 162 is critical for short‑term direction.

Bias: Short‑term consolidation

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

Resistance: 80.78 / 82.45

Support: 78.15 / 76.50

Oil hovered near $80 Wednesday, close to one‑month highs, as U.S. strikes on Iran fueled supply concerns.

Analyst View: A narrow trading range suggests markets are awaiting developments. Sustained gains above $80 would extend the rally.

Bias: Short‑term cautious

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4104 / 4142

Support: 4012 / 3982

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 59.43 / 60.34

Support: 56.72 / 55.59

Gold rebounded after hitting lows, closing slightly higher as weaker inflation reduced Fed hike odds.

Analyst View: Still capped clustered MAs below. Weak rebound momentum; watch U.S. retail sales for guidance.

Bias: Weak rebound

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52,836 / 53,074

Support: 52,313 / 52,079

Dow closed higher Wednesday, supported by softer inflation and strong earnings.

Analyst View: Hovering near the 10‑day MA. Breakout would extend the rebound toward 53,000. Today’s US June Retail sales data is a key focus and drives the index.

Bias: Mild rebound

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,698 / 29,892

Support: 29,310 / 29,070

Tech stocks rose Wednesday, offsetting weakness in chips and Middle East tensions. Apple +4%, Google, Meta, Amazon +3%.

Analyst View: Consolidating near key MAs. Breakout could extend rebound toward 30,000. Retail sales data will guide momentum.

Bias: Mild rebound

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 65,576 / 66,485

Support: 63,508 / 62,584

Bitcoin retreated Wednesday after touching three‑week highs, as traders weighed cooling PPI against U.S.–Iran tensions.

Analyst View: Bulls slowed after testing highs. Consolidation likely; watch 10‑day MA support.

Bias: Range consolidation

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

​ATFX is a leading global fintech Broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 9 licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's CMA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, and Cambodia's SERC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.