Stocks under pressure as Trump toughens rhetoric on China and tariffs

Trump takes aim at China, talks tariffs again

Equity markets remain under pressure on Tuesday following a roller-coaster session on Wall Street yesterday that saw Friday’s selloff deepen. An attempt to pare last week’s losses was torpedoed by President Trump as his administration announced new restrictions on Chinese investments into the US in strategic sectors such as technology, energy and critical infrastructure.

The memorandum signed on Friday includes a review of tax and accounting practices with China. Moreover, the US is also proposing new fees on the use of China-made commercial ships, as well as plans to further toughen the curbs on chip exports to China.

Meanwhile, Trump renewed his threat to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico in a White House press conference on Monday. The tariffs were initially delayed for 30 days to allow time for negotiations, but the deadline of March 4 is fast approaching, and Trump is upping the pressure by telling reporters, “The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule”.

It is unclear how much progress the two countries have made in their talks with Washington or if an extension to the deadline is likely. The President is due to sign more executive orders today, keeping markets further in suspense.

Stocks sag as US-China trade war escalates

Equity traders did not take too kindly to the latest raft of measures aimed at curtailing China’s growing economic power, with shares in Hong Kong slumping for a second straight session today. Stocks on Wall Street were also spooked by the latest headlines as there doesn’t seem to be any letup in Trump’s protectionist desires.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed lower on Monday, reversing earlier gains, although the Dow Jones managed to close flat.

E-mini futures are only modestly down today, while European shares are mostly positive, in a sign that the panic may be easing. Yet, with the possibility that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico can still go ahead and Trump again bringing up the prospect of reciprocal tariffs, any recovery will either be muted or not last very long.

But until there’s a further update on the tariffs front, investors will be focusing on Nvidia’s Q4 earnings results due tomorrow for a potential boost, amid some jitters about the AI rally.

Dollar supported despite Fed rate cuts bets

In the currency markets, the US dollar had a mild wobble but has on the whole been able to hold steady. The combination of safe-haven flows and rising expectations of a second Fed rate cut this year have been pulling Treasury yields lower. But the former is also pushing up demand for the greenback, offsetting the drag from Fed rate cut bets.

Last week’s surprisingly weak services PMI from S&P Global was the first sign that the uncertainty generated by Trump’s foreign and trade policies is starting to dent business confidence. But as long as this doesn’t develop into a sharper slowdown for the economy, it might be good news for risk appetite as the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates.

Friday’s PCE inflation data will be another test for the dollar as it could resume its downleg if investors start to price a third rate cut on the back of softer PCE readings.

Euro steady, cryptos and gold in the red

The euro stuck to a tight trading range on Tuesday as Germany’s CDU/CSU bloc, which won Sunday’s election, begins talks with the SPD to form a ‘grand coalition’. An agreement is the most likely outcome but nevertheless, any complications would be negative for the euro.

Cryptocurrencies, however, tumbled for a second day amid another hack scandal involving a crypto exchange. Bitcoin is down more than 8% so far this week.

Gold is also underperforming, just a day after hitting a new all-time high of $2,956.15/oz. The latest gains took the precious metal into overbought territory, so it was time for some profit taking. But with the Trump-induced uncertainty more likely to increase rather than decrease, gold’s bullish outlook is intact for now.