Technical Analysis – EURUSD pares losses at 7‑½‑month low near 1.1450
EURUSD is attempting to recover some lost ground after a sharp four‑session pullback from the strong cluster of converging simple moving averages (SMAs) and the short‑term uptrend that had pushed the pair toward the 1.1410 region, to levels last seen in July 2025. That said, the scope for meaningful upside may be limited. Both the MACD and RSI continue to flash bearish signals, with the MACD deeply below both zero and its red signal line, and the RSI flattening at the oversold threshold. A death cross between the 20‑ and 200‑day SMAs further reinforces downside pressure.
The moves come amid heightened Middle East concerns, while upcoming Fed and ECB policy meetings this week are likely to keep traders cautious given the current geopolitical uncertainties.
Initial resistance sits above the March 9 trough of 1.1506, at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-March downleg at 1.1568, with stronger resistance at 1.1667 – the zone that triggered the recent pullback and which aligns with the SMA ‘death cross’ and the short‑term ascending trendline.
Support below the recent closing low of 1.1410 appears at the June 10, 2025 swing low of 1.1370, followed by the May lows within the broader 1.1310-1.1250 band.
Summing up, EURUSD is seeing a modest bounce, but price action remains defensive and lacks strong upside momentum for now. Further, as long as the pair trades below the short‑term uptrend line, any relief rallies are likely to attract renewed selling interest, keeping the focus on lower support levels.
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