Today Fundamental Analysis: Oil Prices Extend Gains as Trump’s Deadline Approaches, Keeping Markets on Edge

Oil prices rose above $110, with U.S. crude briefly topping $114, as President Donald Trump gave Iran a deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face military strikes. Despite plans by OPEC+ to boost production, ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and blocked shipping routes continue to tighten supply and support elevated oil prices. The continued rise in oil prices is adding to inflation concerns, while recent U.S. jobs data showed mixed signals, keeping investors cautious despite the recent market rebound.

U.S. stock futures edged lower Monday despite last week’s strong rally, as investors focused on the U.S.-Iran conflict and rising oil prices. Markets trimmed losses slightly on reports of possible ceasefire talks, though chances of a quick deal remain low ahead of a key deadline. Investors await ISM services PMI numbers from the US today as it's expected to drop to 54.8 from the previous reading of 56.1

Gold rebounded from around $4,600 but lacked strong momentum, supported by a softer U.S. dollar amid reports of potential ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran. However, rising oil prices and inflation concerns are strengthening expectations of higher interest rates, which supports the dollar and limits gold’s upside.Overall, geopolitical risks provide support, but a hawkish Fed outlook and elevated yields continue to cap further gains in gold.

EUR/USD is likely to stay between 1.1400 and 1.1650. USDJPY remains below 160.50 and could move lower toward 157–156, although there is still caution around a potential upside breakout in the medium term. EUR/JPY is expected to stay below the 185–186 resistance zone.

AUTHOR

Ghassan Albohtori 

Financial Market Analyst - STARTRADER

Ghassan Albohtori is a financial market analyst with experience in macroeconomics, investing, and currency trading. He conducts in-depth market research covering fundamental and technical analysis of different instruments to find major changes in market trends. Mr. Ghassan's main focus is the effects of economic data on different asset classes and how this affects prices.

Risk Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or investment advice. Trading financial instruments on margin involves substantial risk and may not be appropriate for all investors.