Trump’s Iran U-Turn Sparks Market Turmoil

ATFX Market Outlook - 24th March 2026 

Trump’s Iran U-Turn Sparks Market Turmoil

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       Global financial markets experienced one of the most volatile sessions of the year after President Trump posted that he had abandoned threats to bomb Iranian energy infrastructure. Oil prices plummeted by over 13%, U.S. stocks rebounded, and gold recovered a significant portion of its losses.

·       Trump stated that "productive dialogue" with Iran led to a temporary postponement of military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. However, Iran denied on Monday that any negotiations with the U.S. had taken place, leaving markets in a state of cautious observation.

·       Key Focus Today: Continued attention on developments in the Middle East and follow-ups to any statements from Trump. On the data front, focus on preliminary manufacturing, services, and composite PMI data from various countries. U.S. Manufacturing PMI is expected to slow slightly but remain in expansion territory.

Global Market Review

The three major U.S. stock indices all closed up more than 1% on Monday, recording their largest single-day percentage gains since February 6. This followed President Trump’s announcement that he had ordered the military to delay strikes on Iranian power plants after "productive dialogue" with Tehran. The Dow closed up 1.38%, the S&P 500 rose 1.15%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.38%. The U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies as the delay in strikes eased short-term concerns over further supply shocks.   

Gold prices narrowed their losses yesterday, rebounding from four-month lows after President Trump postponed the strikes on Iranian infrastructure. However, gold still marked its ninth consecutive day of declines as rising interest rate bets dampened its appeal. Spot gold closed down 1.8% at $4,405.77 per ounce, after earlier falling by more than 8% during the session. WTI crude oil plummeted over 9% after Trump stated he would delay plans to strike Iran’s energy grid by five days, citing "constructive dialogue" aimed at defusing hostilities in the Middle East.

Key Events Today:

16:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash MAR ** 17:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash MAR ** 17:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash MAR **21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash MAR **  22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index MAR ** 

 Tomorrow 04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock *** 07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes ***  08:30 AU CPI FEB **   15:00 GB CPI & PPI FEB***  17:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate MAR ** 

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1672/1.1721Support: 1.1512/1.1462

EUR rose 0.4% to 1.1616, hitting a two-week high. The U.S. dollar retreated as the "war premium" faded, and markets adjusted Fed hike probabilities downward to 13% for December.

Analyst View: Price has successfully cleared the 1.1573 pivot, confirming an ascending channel structure on the 4H chart. Momentum is currently leaning bullish toward the 1.1672 resistance zone. Bulls must maintain support above 1.1512 to preserve this short-term recovery trend.

Bias: Upside limited below 1.1600.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3484/1.3515Support: 1.3319/1.3280

Sterling jumped 0.71% to 1.3436, hitting its highest level since March 10. A retreating US Dollar drove the rally following President Trump's comments on "productive talks" with Iran, which temporarily eased fears of a global supply shock and boosted risk-sensitive currencies.

Analyst View: The pair is trending within a well-defined ascending channel on the 4H chart. Clearing the 1.3382 pivot confirms a sustained recovery phase. Bullish momentum targets the channel's upper boundary at 1.3484; maintaining support at 1.3319 is critical to validate this constructive outlook.

Bias: Consolidating near the 1.3400 handle.

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.29/159.61Support: 157.97/157.67

USDJPY fell 0.6% to 158.30. The drop in oil prices is a significant relief for Japan’s trade balance, allowing the Yen to pull away from the 160.00 intervention danger zone as Treasury yields cooled.

Analyst View: The pair is oscillating within a broad descending broadening wedge, reflecting heightened volatility. Price is currently testing the 158.28 (0.618 Fib) support. A sustained break below this floor could accelerate a move toward 157.67, confirming a short-term bearish reversal.

Bias: Monitoring the 158–159 range.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

Resistance: 99.93/104.52Support: 85.07/80.41

Oil prices suffered a historic 10.3% crash to $88.13. Trump’s 5-day strike delay and claims of a "perfect deal" punctured the supply-risk premium, despite Iran’s denial of any talks. Market volatility is at its highest since April 2022.

Analyst View: Yesterday's low landed on the 20-day MA, easing immediate downward pressure. Resistance sits at the 10-day MA near $94.60. Any rebound depends on new headlines from the U.S. or Iran.

Bias: Consolidating within major Moving Average ranges.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4484/4552Support: 4196/4126

Spot Silver

Resistance: 69.29/72.10Support: 59.99/57.13

Gold performed a dramatic "Deep V" reversal. After hitting a nine-day low below $4,100, prices surged back above $4,400. The rally was fueled by a retreating USD and a temporary de-escalation in strike threats, though hawkish rate expectations continue to cap the upside.

Analyst View: Gold has established a definitive short-term floor at $4,126, ending a nine-day losing streak. The recovery is currently challenging the descending resistance line on the 4H chart. A decisive breakout above $4,484 is required to shift the technical bias from a relief rally to a structural reversal.

Bias: Rebound limited below $4,500.

Dow Jones Futures 

Resistance: 46797/47392Support: 45464/44879

The Dow surged 1.38% to 46,208, marking its best day since February. The collapse in energy costs acted as a massive stimulus for industrials and airlines, while the perceived 5-day peace window allowed risk appetite to return.

Analyst View: The index has staged a high-volume recovery, effectively reclaiming the 45,464 Fibonacci floor. Despite the rally, price action remains within a primary descending channel. A daily close above the 46,797 resistance zone is required to negate the prevailing medium-term bearish structure.

Bias: Consolidating in the lower range.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 24737/25010Support: 23854/23586

NAS100 jumped 1.38%. Lower energy costs and falling bond yields provided the perfect backdrop for tech outperformance, with cyclical tech stocks leading the charge away from the recent lows.

Analyst View: The index is undergoing a technical rebound after testing the 23,854 support level within a broad descending channel. While short-term momentum is positive, a structural shift requires a confirmed breakout above the 24,737 resistance to neutralize the prevailing bearish trend.

Bias: Rebound limited below 24,500.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 73528/74769

Support: 68354/67154

Bitcoin jumped 4.5% to $70,947.6 on Monday. Hopes for Middle East de-escalation boosted risk assets, triggering a relief rally. Despite Tehran's denials of talks, the cooling of energy-led inflation fears provided a strong floor for BTC.

Analyst View: Price action has successfully reclaimed the ascending channel's median line, signaling a restoration of short-term bullish structure. Momentum is now targeting the 73,528 resistance zone. A sustained defense of the 68,354 support level is essential to validate this recovery and maintain a constructive trajectory toward previous highs.

Bias: Bullish above 68,354.

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