Unresolved U.S.–Iran Rifts Keep Markets Cautious

ATFX Market Outlook - 18th August 2026

Unresolved U.S.–Iran Rifts Keep Markets Cautious

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

As the U.S.–Iran framework ceasefire expired, Iran threatened to shift to a full offensive posture, while Washington said it did not rule out extending the truce. U.S. equities weakened Monday amid fears of worsening tensions in the Middle East. The dollar traded mixed against major currencies, while gold and oil extended gains.

Today’s focus: UK Unemployment Rate (Forecast 4.7%, Previous 4.9%). A lower‑than‑expected reading would support GBP. Eurozone August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is expected to improve further, reflecting institutional investor confidence in the outlook. U.S. July Industrial Production (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.3%) will test output resilience.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities closed lower on Monday: Dow ‑0.5%, S&P 500 ‑0.5%, Nasdaq ‑0.32%.

U.S. Treasuries sold off, dragging indices. The dollar index recovered after hitting its lowest level since early June, as bets on a Fed rate hike cooled.

Gold +0.9% on weaker Fed expectations.

Oil rose as diplomatic prospects for ending the U.S.–Iran conflict dimmed, heightening supply concerns.

Key Events Today:

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate JUN **

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index AUG **

20:30 US Housing Starts JUL **

20:30 US Building Permits Prel JUL **

21:15 US Manufacturing & Industrial Production JUL **

August 19 (GMT+8)

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***

14:00 GB CPI & PPI JUL ***

15:10 ECB President Lagarde Speech ***

17:00 EU CPI Final JUL **

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1590 / 1.1602

Support: 1.1563 / 1.1551

EUR/USD hit two‑month highs on Monday, but inflation concerns from rising oil prices may cap upside.

Analyst View: Briefly broke 1.1610 but stalled at 1.1614. If unable to break 1.1600 again, momentum may fade, returning to prior ranges.

Bias: Weak rebound

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3591 / 1.3626

Support: 1.3483 / 1.3449

GBP/USD broke 1.3550 on Monday for the first time in three months, then gave back gains. Market awaits UK jobs today and inflation tomorrow.

Analyst View: Extended three‑month highs, but momentum toward 1.3600 may be capped ahead of data.

Bias: Mild rebound

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.78 / 160.01

Support: 159.34 / 159.05

Yen failed to rally as Japan's GDP missed forecasts. USD pressured by weaker Fed-hike bets; the pair stayed in a narrow range.

Analyst View: Still consolidating near 159.50. Dips bought back, showing support at lows.

Bias: Range consolidation

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 85.03 / 86.90

Support: 82.07 / 80.58

Oil extended gains on Monday as Trump rejected extending the truce. Traders assess conflict risks.

Analyst View: After a two‑day rally to late‑July highs, it opened lower Tuesday. Likely to stay in the high range despite adjustment.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4450 / 4466

Support: 4381 / 4364

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 67.19 / 67.58

Support: 65.54 / 65.15

Gold extended its rebound as Fed-hike bets weakened—metals supported by Middle East tensions.

Analyst View: Gold consolidating at highs, targeting $4,450. Watch for resistance at the range top and inflation worries from oil.

Bias: Mild rebound

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53,804 / 53,932

Support: 53,211 / 53,084

Dow fell ~260 points on Monday as the U.S.–Iran stalemate lifted inflation fears. 30‑year yields hit 19‑year highs.

Analyst View: At two‑week lows, bears may push toward 53,000 support.

Bias: Short‑term bearish

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30,204 / 30,550

Support: 29,869 / 29,442

Middle East tensions outweighed AI stock gains. Memory and optical chip stocks rose, but Nasdaq failed to extend the rebound.

Analyst View: Stalled near last week’s highs. Bulls are losing momentum and are likely to consolidate.

Bias: Weakening momentum

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 64,991 / 65,424

Support: 63,959 / 63,613

Bitcoin price rose nearly 2% to reclaim $64,000, supported by short-term buying momentum.

Analyst View: Biggest gain since mid‑July, breaking out of lows. Could target August highs above $65k, but bulls may pause after the surge.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

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