U.S. Inflation Slows More Than Expected; Eyes on PPI and Earnings

ATFX Market Outlook - 15th July 2026

U.S. Inflation Slows More Than Expected; Eyes on PPI and Earnings

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

On Tuesday, the U.S. announced the reinstatement of a full maritime blockade on all Iranian ports. At the same time, President Trump withdrew his earlier plan to impose a 20% transit fee on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. June consumer inflation cooled more than expected, falling to 3.5% YoY. CPI dropped 0.4% MoM, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, driven mainly by lower energy prices. Following the release, traders reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike in July.

Today’s focus: U.S. June PPI, expected to slow to 6.2% YoY (prior 6.5%), signalling inflation may have peaked. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates at 2.25%, but markets will watch its updated inflation and economic outlook for guidance. Early Thursday, the Fed Beige Book will provide fresh insights on growth, inflation, and job markets.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities rose Tuesday on easing rate concerns and strong earnings. Major banks reported solid results. Dow +0.02%, S&P 500 +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.9%.

Softer inflation reduced expectations for further Fed tightening. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar retreated.

Gold rose 1.3% as weaker inflation boosted expectations for a less hawkish Fed.

Oil extended gains as the U.S. reinstated its blockade on Iran.

Key Events Today:

10:00 CN GDP Q2 ***

17:00 EU Industrial Production MAY **

20:30 US PPI JUN ***

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***

22:30 BoC Press Conference ***

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

July 16 (GMT+8)

02:00 Fed Beige Book ***

14:00 GB GDP MAY **

14:00 GB Industrial Production MAY **

20:30 US Retail Sales JUN ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

22:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM JUN **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1459 / 1.1473

Support: 1.1414 / 1.1400

Softer U.S. inflation eased pressure on the Fed, lifting EUR/USD above 1.1400 to early‑month highs before a partial pullback.

Analyst View: Resistance near 1.1460 capped upside. Watch for retests; failure to break may limit momentum.

Bias: Mildly bullish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3461 / 1.3499

Support: 1.3339 / 1.3301

Sterling rose on weaker U.S. inflation, nearing last week’s one‑month highs before stalling at 1.3443.

Analyst View: Reclaimed above the 10‑day MA, now key support. Short‑term rebound potential remains, though trendline resistance near recent highs may cap gains.

Bias: Mildly bullish

USDJPY

Resistance: 162.45 / 162.71

Support: 161.60 / 161.33

USD/JPY briefly fell below 162 on Tuesday before recovering as traders scaled back bets on Fed rate hikes.

Analyst View: Closed back above key MAs near 162, showing bulls still in play. Momentum to retest highs remains, but the rebound is limited.

Bias: Slightly weak

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

Resistance: 82.45 / 83.72

Support: 78.15 / 76.50

Supply concerns persisted, but Trump scrapped the plan to impose a transit fee on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Oil extended gains but slowly, holding near one‑month highs.

Analyst View: Consolidating around $80. Sustained rebound could reach above $82.

Bias: Bullish with cautious

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4104 / 4142

Support: 4012 / 3982

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 60.34 / 61.46

Support: 57.61 / 56.72

Gold rebounded from July 1 lows, closing higher as weaker inflation reduced Fed hike odds. Early Asia trade saw prices near $4,050.

Analyst View: Resistance from Iran tensions and clustered MAs may keep bulls cautious below $4,100. Watch U.S. PPI for guidance.

Bias: Mildly bullish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52,836 / 53,074

Support: 52,313 / 52,079

Dow rose modestly Tuesday, supported by softer inflation and strong bank earnings.

Analyst View: Reclaimed above the 20‑day MA. Needs to overcome 10‑day MA and trendline resistance from recent highs.

Bias: Trading within moving averages

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30,083 / 30,326

Support: 29,504 / 29,310

Nasdaq rebounded on stronger risk appetite, supported by tech stocks and easing inflation.

Analyst View: Held most gains after testing key MAs but failed to break higher. Watch for a slowdown in momentum if resistance holds.

Bias: Rebound capped

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 65,576 / 66,485

Support: 63,508 / 62,584

Bitcoin surged over 4% Tuesday, breaking out of a two‑week range to its highest since June 22, supported by softer inflation and Trump’s cancellation of the Strait of Hormuz fee plan.

Analyst View: BTC/USD hit highs near $65,700 and is targeting levels above $66,000. Watch for cautious momentum at elevated levels.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

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