US-Iran Calms; Stocks Mixed, Gold at 7-Week High

ATFX Market Outlook - 6th August 2026

US-Iran Calms; Stocks Mixed, Gold at 7-Week High

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Sources report that an Iran–Oman agreement aimed at ending the U.S.–Iran war would grant Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. Market sentiment remained broadly positive Wednesday: the Dow hit another record high, though tech gains slowed, while gold surged to a seven‑week high. U.S. July ADP employment rose only 44,000, below expectations, further weighing on the dollar.

Today’s focus: U.S. initial jobless claims, forecast to rise to 202,000 (prior 197,000). A sharper‑than‑expected increase would heighten concerns about the labour market. Eurozone June retail sales are also in focus, expected to slow to +0.1% MoM (prior +0.2%).

Global Market Review

Dow Jones closed at a record high Wednesday on signs of progress toward an Iran peace deal. Nasdaq fell for the first time in five sessions, dragged by sharp drops in SpaceX and AMD after earnings. Dow +0.49%, S&P 500 ‑0.17%, Nasdaq ‑0.8%.

Dollar hovered near six‑week lows.

Gold +4.2%, hitting a seven‑week high and posting its biggest one‑day gain since February, supported by falling Treasury yields and optimism over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil was little changed late Wednesday, pressured by expectations of the Strait reopening.

Key Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders JUN **

17:00 EU Retail Sales JUN **

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

August 7 (GMT+8)

14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production JUN **

20:30 US Non Farm Payrolls JUL ***

20:30 US Unemployment Rate JUL ***

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate JUL **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1580 / 1.1593

Support: 1.1534 / 1.1515

EUR/USD extended gains on Wednesday, supported by PMI data and dollar weakness. Focus remains on progress toward a U.S.–Iran peace deal.

Analyst View: Trading in weekly high range. Needs fresh breakout; otherwise likely to consolidate ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls.

Bias: Range trading

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3517 / 1.3559

Support: 1.3418 / 1.3382

GBP/USD broke above 1.3480 on Wednesday, hitting two‑day highs, supported by optimism over a potential U.S.–Iran agreement.

Analyst View: After two days of gains, watch whether the pair can target 1.3500. Caution likely ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls.

Bias: Mildly bullish

USDJPY

Resistance: 158.58 / 159.62

Support: 157.31 / 156.25

USD/JPY eased on Wednesday. BoJ minutes showed some members favour faster hikes. Coordinated intervention and tightening expectations supported yen strength.

Analyst View: Holding below 158, consolidating. Watch U.S. nonfarm payrolls for breakout momentum.

Bias: Range consolidation

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 77.99 / 80.29

Support: 71.99 / 70.22

WTI ended little changed on Wednesday. Diplomatic progress eased supply fears, raising hopes of the Strait reopening.

Analyst View: Hovering near three‑week lows. Needs to reclaim $78 to ease pressure.

Bias: Low‑level pressured

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4326 / 4355

Support: 4204 / 4168

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 63.27 / 64.26

Support: 61.02 / 60.02

Optimism over Strait reopening eased inflation fears, lowering Fed hike odds. Gold posted its biggest one‑day gain since February.

Analyst View: Gold extended rally on Thursday, approaching $4,300. Watch resistance near mid‑July highs and U.S. nonfarm payrolls guidance.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 54,786 / 55,045

Support: 53,971 / 53,708

U.S. equities paused after strong August start. Dow hit new highs, but momentum slowed late Wednesday.

Analyst View: Likely to consolidate at highs, but may attempt push toward 55,000.

Bias: Mildly bullish

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,714 / 30,045

Support: 28,867 / 28,612

Nasdaq fell on Wednesday after SpaceX and AMD earnings, ending a streak. Optimism over the Middle East eased downside.

Analyst View: Retreated after hitting early‑July highs. Likely to consolidate near 30,000 ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls.

Bias: Cautious watch

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 65,593 / 66,271

Support: 63,434 / 62,768

Bitcoin edged higher on Thursday, extending mild recovery on hopes of Strait reopening.

Analyst View: Trading in a tight range. A break above the 20‑day MA could extend the rally above $65k, but resistance from last week’s highs remains.

Bias: Mild rebound

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