U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Holds, Gold Rebounds as Oil Pulls Back Below $100

ATFX Market Outlook – 6th May 2026  

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Holds, Gold Rebounds as Oil Pulls Back Below $100

(By ATFX Analyst Team) 

Summary 

·       U.S.-Iran tensions eased slightly as the ceasefire agreement continued to hold, while Trump said the “Freedom Plan” would be paused for a period. Gold rebounded from lower levels and traded near $4,585, supported by dip-buying and lower oil prices, while WTI crude fell back below the $100 level as immediate supply concerns cooled.

·       Today’s Focus: Markets will continue to watch the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and shipping conditions around the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory report will also be in focus, while investors await U.S. employment data later this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Global Market Review 

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.81%, the Nasdaq up 1.03%, and the Dow Jones up 0.73%, as easing geopolitical concerns and strong earnings lifted risk sentiment. The U.S. Dollar Index edged down 0.03% to 98.437, while the euro and sterling gained slightly. USD/JPY rose 0.4% to 157.85 as traders remained cautious after recent suspected Japanese intervention. Gold climbed 0.8% to $4,557.56, supported by dip-buying and lower oil prices, though high energy costs and hawkish Fed expectations still capped sentiment. Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent down 4% to $109.87 and WTI down 3.9% to $102.27, as optimism over a ceasefire triggered profit-taking after the recent rally.

Key Events Today: 

04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock *** 

09:45 CN Services & Composite PMI APR ** 

15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final APR **

16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final APR ** 

16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final APR ** 

17:00 EU PPI MoM MAR **

20:15 US ADP Employment Change APR *** 

22:30 EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock **

Tomorrow: 

14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM MAR** 

17:00 EU Retail Sales MoM MAR ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

EURUSD 

Resistance: 1.1771/1.1801Support: 1.1674/1.1643

EURUSD rose slightly to 1.1701 as the dollar softened while markets watched the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Oil’s pullback eased some inflation pressure, but Fed easing expectations remain limited.

Analyst View: EURUSD is recovering from support, but the move still looks like range trading rather than a confirmed bullish breakout. Buyers need to clear 1.1771–1.1801 before the euro can regain stronger upside momentum.

Bias: Neutral below 1.1771.

GBPUSD 

Resistance: 1.3608/1.3634Support: 1.3528/1.3504

GBPUSD edged higher to 1.3551 as the dollar softened and risk currencies improved. However, Fed rate-cut expectations remain weak, while uncertainty in the Middle East may keep sterling’s rebound limited.

Analyst View: GBPUSD is showing better short-term recovery momentum, but the pair is now moving into a zone where sellers previously reacted. A clean break above 1.3608–1.3634 is needed to confirm a stronger upside rather than just a relief rebound.

Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish above 1.3528.

USDJPY

Resistance: 158.11/158.72Support: 156.73/156.10

USDJPY rose to 157.85 as the yen weakened despite caution about recent intervention. Traders remain alert after Japan’s suspected intervention, but higher oil prices and energy-import pressure continue to weigh on the yen.

Analyst View: USDJPY’s rebound shows that intervention has slowed the rally but has not fully changed the underlying pressure on the yen. The 158.11–158.72 zone is important; rejection there may trigger consolidation, while a breakout could revive 160-related intervention concerns.

Bias: Range-bound below 158.72

US Crude Oil Futures (JUN) 

Resistance: 105.63/108.71Support: 95.48/92.35

WTI fell below $100 after the US said the fragile ceasefire with Iran remained valid and the “Freedom Plan” was paused. The decline also reflected technical profit-taking after the earlier rally.

Analyst View: WTI’s sharp pullback suggests the market is unwinding part of the geopolitical risk premium after the ceasefire holds. However, downside may remain limited unless price breaks below the $95.48–$92.35 support zone, as uncertainty around Hormuz has not fully disappeared.

Bias: Corrective below $105.63.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) 

Resistance: 4696/4743Support: 4545/4499

Spot Silver 

Resistance: 76.95/78.38Support:72.28/70.87

Gold recovered toward $4,585 and may retest $4,600, supported by dip-buying and lower oil prices. However, high expectations and fragile conditions in the Middle East may keep the recovery uneven.

Analyst View: Gold is attempting to build a recovery from the $4,545–$4,499 support zone, but the rebound still lacks strong bullish confirmation. Unless price clears $4,696, the market may remain trapped in a corrective channel.

Bias: Recovery watch above $4,545.

Dow Jones Futures  

Resistance: 49815/50368Support: 48557/47994

The Dow rose 0.73% to 49,298.25 as easing geopolitical fears and strong earnings improved sentiment. Broad-based sector gains indicated improved market breadth following the previous risk-off session.

Analyst View: The Dow is trying to rebuild upside momentum after holding above support, but buyers still need a clean push through 49,815–50,368 to confirm a stronger recovery.

Bias: Recovery watch above 48,557.

NASDAQ 100 

Resistance: 28607/28992Support: 27446/26948

NAS100 rose 1.03% to a record close, supported by AI-related stocks. Intel jumped 13%, AMD gained 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged to a record high.

Analyst View: NAS100 remains the strongest major index, with AI and semiconductor momentum still attracting buyers. However, price is approaching the 28,607–28,992 resistance zone, where short-term profit-taking may appear.

Bias: Bullish above 27,446.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 

Resistance: 82326/82866

Support: 80028/79497

Bitcoin rose above $81,000 to a three-month high near $81,392 as US-Iran tensions cooled and the ceasefire remained intact. However, Strategy’s $14.5 billion unrealized loss and weaker crypto trading activity may limit momentum.

Analyst View: Bitcoin remains in a constructive uptrend, but price is now approaching the 82,326–82,866 resistance zone, where buyers may face stronger profit-taking. As long as the 80,028–79,497 support zone holds, the broader recovery remains intact.

Bias: Bullish above $80,028.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk. 

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