US-Iran Talks Fail, Safe-Haven Demand Returns

ATFX Market Outlook – 13th April 2026

US-Iran Talks Fail, Safe-Haven Demand Returns

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       After 21 hours of talks, the U.S. and Iran failed to reach a deal. Trump threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of further escalation and pushing markets back toward safe-haven assets at the start of the week.

·       U.S. March consumer prices saw the biggest rise in nearly four years, while April consumer sentiment fell to a record low. Fed’s Mary Daly said the oil price shock could delay inflation’s return to target.

·       Today, markets remain focused on U.S.-Iran developments and OPEC’s monthly oil market report, with volatility likely to stay elevated.

Global Market Review

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the weekend, closely monitoring the ongoing Middle East peace talks. All three major indices posted their biggest weekly percentage gains since November. The U.S. dollar fell, recording its biggest weekly decline since January as investors sold safe-haven assets. EUR/USD stood at 1.172, up 1.8% on the week, while GBP/USD closed at 1.346, up 2% on the week.

Spot gold fell 0.34% on Friday, closing at $4,747.49 per ounce but still posted a weekly gain of around 1.5% as market participants continued to assess the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and its implications for interest rates. Oil futures fell on Friday ahead of the U.S.-Iran talks and recorded their biggest weekly decline since 2022. U.S. crude settled down $1.30, or 1.3%, at $96.57 per barrel, with a weekly loss of 13.4%.

Key Events Today:

22:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM MAR ** 20:00 OPEC Monthly Report **

Tomorrow:11:00 CN Balance of Trade MAR **

12:30 JP Industrial Production MoM FEB **

16:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report **

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index MAR **

20:30 US PPI YoY MAR ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1712/1.1740Support: 1.1595/1.1567

EURUSD stayed firm at near 1.173 as last week’s broad dollar weakness lingered. However, with U.S.-Iran talks now collapsing and geopolitical risk flaring again, the pair may struggle to extend gains if safe-haven demand starts flowing back into the dollar.

Analyst View: EURUSD is trading just below the 1.1712–1.1740 resistance zone, so upside looks increasingly stretched. Unless that cap gives way, the pair may slip back toward 1.1595–1.1567 as renewed geopolitical tension rebuilds dollar demand.

Bias: Correcting below 1.1700

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3446/1.3484Support: 1.3321/1.3283

GBPUSD held near 1.347 after strong gains last week, supported by softer USD pricing. Still, the renewed shock in the Middle East could shift sentiment quickly, meaning sterling may find it harder to keep advancing if the market turns defensive again.

Analyst View: GBPUSD is holding up reasonably well, but the pair is now approaching the 1.3446–1.3484 resistance zone. Unless that zone gives way, the upside may lose momentum, leaving sterling vulnerable to a pullback towards 1.3321–1.3283.

Bias: Under pressure around 1.3400 for now

USDJPY

Resistance: 160.08/160.46Support: 159.48/159.18

USDJPY rose toward 159.255 as the yen remained soft despite geopolitical tensions back on the rise. The pair now sits between renewed risk aversion support for the yen and firmer U.S. rate expectations as oil-driven inflation risks intensify.

Analyst View: USDJPY is holding in the upper part of its recent range, with 160.08–160.46 now the key ceiling. As long as 159.18–159.48 contains pullbacks, the pair still leans supported rather than decisively reversing lower.

Bias: Cautious near the 160.00 level

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

Resistance: 109.79/113.78Support: 97.08/93.15

WTI jumped more than 8% and traded near $104.60 after the U.S.-Iran talks failed and Washington announced a blockade on Iranian ports. With supply fears back in focus, crude may keep pressing higher if the market can firmly hold above $105.

Analyst View: WTI remains elevated after the sharp gap higher, but the market is now approaching the 109.79–113.78 resistance zone, where upside may encounter heavier supply unless the geopolitical premium intensifies further.

Bias: Bullish above $100

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4773/4862Support: 4570/4480

Spot Silver

Resistance: 78.91/82.34Support: 72.07/67.84

Spot gold opened sharply lower near $4,652 despite renewed geopolitical stress, suggesting markets are reacting more to reduced expectations for Fed easing and hotter inflation implications. The $4,650 area now looks like a key near-term line for sentiment.

Analyst View: Gold is stabilizing after the sharp opening drop, but price remains capped below the 4,773–4,862 resistance band. Unless that area is retested, the rebound looks corrective, with 4,570–4,480 likely to remain the key downside cushion.

Bias: Near-term pressure if it breaks below $4,700

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 48440/49080Support: 47159/46367

The Dow ended last Friday down 0.56%, reflecting caution ahead of the weekend talks. With negotiations now broken and energy shock risks returning, U.S. equities may face renewed pressure, especially if higher oil prices sustain inflation and delay Fed easing.

Analyst View: The Dow is attempting to stabilize after the recent breakdown, but the rebound still faces a meaningful supply zone at 48,440–49,080. Unless that area is reclaimed, the move higher may remain corrective rather than the start of a broader recovery.

Bias: Pullback from highs

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 25289/25674Support: 24898/24506

NAS100 outperformed, up 0.35%, helped by AI-linked optimism and strength in major tech names. Still, the index may find the backdrop tougher this week if rising yields and inflation fears begin to outweigh sector-specific optimism.

Analyst View: The NAS100 is rebounding, but the move still runs into a clear supply zone at 25,289–25,674. Until that cap is cleared, the recovery looks constructive, though not yet strong enough to confirm a broader upside extension.

Bias: Pullback from highs

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 71760/72828

Support: 69408/68357

Bitcoin held near $71,600 despite the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks, suggesting selling pressure remains contained for now. Resilient ETF demand and institutional buying are helping offset geopolitical stress, though upside may stay measured while broader risk sentiment remains fragile.

Analyst View: Bitcoin is consolidating just below a key overhead zone at 71,760–72,828, which keeps the near-term tone constructive but not decisive. For now, it looks more like digestion after strength than a market already ready to break free.

Bias: Neutral to bullish

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