US-Iran to Resume Talks; Markets Brace for US Job Data Week

ATFX Market Outlook - 29th June 2026

US-Iran to Resume Talks; Markets Brace for US Job Data Week

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

The U.S. and Iran have reportedly agreed to a three-day halt of retaliatory strikes around the Strait of Hormuz and will resume technical talks in Qatar on Tuesday. Markets are attentive to developments.

Key focus today includes the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, global inflation and PMI releases, and speeches from central bank governors. Watch for the Eurozone June Industrial Sentiment Index and the U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, both expected to show improvement.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities closed slightly lower Friday, with AI-related chip stocks falling and healthcare names like Moderna gaining. Weekly performance: S&P 500 down 2.05%, Nasdaq down 4.7%, Dow Jones up 0.6%.

Treasuries & FX: Yields declined, the dollar retreated but ended the week higher.

Commodities: Gold rose 1.6% to $4,088/oz but posted a weekly decline; oil prices fell nearly 7% as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalised.

Key Events Today:

17:00 EU Economic Sentiment JUN **

22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JUN **

June 30 (GMT+8)

07:30 JP Unemployment Rate MAY **

09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes ***

09:30 CN Manufacturing & Non Manufacturing PMI JUN **

14:00 GB GDP Final Q1 ***

15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate JUN **

20:00 EU GERMANY CPI Prel JUN **

20:30 CA GDP APR **

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence JUN **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1422 / 1.1437

Support: 1.1361 / 1.1346

The euro strengthened for a second day on Friday, trimming gains late as traders weighed Middle East tensions and Fed policy outlook.

Analyst View: The 10-day moving average remains a key resistance; until breached, expect mild rebounds within the lower range.

Bias: Moderate rebound

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3228 / 1.3246

Support: 1.3150 / 1.3132

Sterling extended gains Friday as the dollar softened, though geopolitical and domestic political risks remain.

Analyst View: Holding near 1.3200; testing resistance at 1.3240 (10-day MA) will determine the strength of rebound momentum.

Bias: Moderate rebound

USDJPY

Resistance: 161.90 / 162.06

Support: 161.49 / 161.37

Slight pullback from 162 Friday amid intervention concerns, but pair remains elevated.

Analyst View: Narrow consolidation at high levels; bulls eye a break above 162.

Bias: Sideways consolidation

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

Resistance: 71.66 / 72.29

Support: 69.03 / 68.42

Prices fell below $70 in Asia on Monday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause strikes.

Analyst View: Oil remains pressured at recent lows; $69 provides near-term support.

Bias: Low-range consolidation

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4119/4162

Support: 4024/3983

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 61.49/62.98

Support:55.28/54.09

Gold rose above $4,080 Friday as weaker yields pressured the dollar, though Fed rate expectations cap upside.

Analyst View: Mild rebound continues; resistance near $4,140 (10-day MA).

Bias: Moderate rebound

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52,338 / 52,537

Support: 51,663 / 51,404

Dow closed higher Friday despite a tech sell-off, holding an elevated range.

Analyst View: Above 10-day MA, maintaining consolidation; watch 52,000 resistance.

Bias: High-range consolidation

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,478 / 29,781

Support: 28,801 / 28,493

Tech stocks dragged lower Friday on debt and Fed concerns; the Nasdaq closed at a two-week low.

Analyst View: Holding above 29,000; potential rebound capped by resistance near 29,700.

Bias: Consolidation

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 60305/61250

Support: 58155/57178

Bitcoin fell below the key $60,000 mark on Sunday, as persistent ETF outflows, a stronger U.S. dollar, and expectations for tighter monetary policy continued to weigh on sentiment.

Analyst View: Bitcoin remains pressured, with $60,000 acting as resistance. Trading is confined to a low-range channel defined by the 10-day MA and last week’s lows.

Bias: Range-bound at lower levels

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