U.S. Jobs Unexpectedly Fall; Gold Surges as Rate Hike Bets Fade

ATFX Market Outlook - 10th August 2026

U.S. Jobs Unexpectedly Fall; Gold Surges as Rate Hike Bets Fade

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell, undermining Fed rate‑hike expectations. July payrolls decreased by 23,000, while May and June data were revised down by 103,000. U.S. equities rose Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high. Gold jumped over 2%, hitting a seven‑week high.

On Sunday, Iran said its agreement with Oman on new Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes was in the final stage, but reiterated the strait would only reopen once other conditions were met.

Today’s focus: After recent geopolitical developments and shifts in central bank expectations, markets now turn fully to key macro data. U.S. July CPI and retail sales will directly test the economy and shape Fed policy outlook. RBA decision, UK and Eurozone GDP, and other major releases will drive cross‑currency volatility. U.S. Q2 earnings season nears its end.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities rose Friday as weak payrolls dampened rate‑hike bets. Weekly gains: S&P 500 +3.58%, Nasdaq +5.19%, Dow +2.96%.

Dollar index ‑0.35% to 99.61, down for second week.

Gold +2%, hitting seven‑week highs, weekly +7% (largest since Jan 19).

Traders assessed the latest Middle East news on the Strait reopening. WTI crude fell over 1% Friday.

Key Events Today:

07:50 BoJ Summary of Opinions **

16:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence AUG **

August 11

Japan Holiday

12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***

13:30 RBA Press Conference ***

22:00 US Existing Home Sales JUL **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1581 / 1.1595

Support: 1.1533 / 1.1518

EUR/USD rebounded on Friday, hitting highs since June 17, supported by weak U.S. payrolls and softer Fed expectations.

Analyst View: Attempting a breakout from last week’s range. Watch resistance 1.1580–1.1600.

Bias: Mildly bullish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3516 / 1.3558

Support: 1.3449 / 1.3416

GBP/USD rose on Friday, the biggest weekly gain in over a week, briefly breaking 1.3500.

Analyst View: Twice failed to hold above 1.3500. If unable to break, expect consolidation within prior range.

Bias: Range trading

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.40 / 160.05

Support: 156.57 / 155.89

In early Asia trade, USD/JPY rose above 158. BoJ summary showed divisions between holding rates and faster hikes. Weak U.S. payrolls may cap upside.

Analyst View: Recovered after breaking 158/157 Friday. Resistance at 158.50 remains. Likely to consolidate within last week’s range.

Bias: Range consolidation

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 82.13 / 83.61

Support: 75.80 / 74.34

Oil remained pressured on Friday amid hopes of the Strait reopening, but rebounded Monday.

Analyst View: Facing 10‑day MA resistance. Without headlines, likely stuck below $80.

Bias: Weak trading

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4355 / 4384

Support: 4262 / 4232

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 65.28 / 66.56

Support: 61.02 / 60.02

Gold surged over $100 on Friday, best weekly performance since January, on a weaker dollar, falling oil, and softer Fed expectations.

Analyst View: Slight pullback Monday, but above $4,300 could attract more buying. Watch resistance above $4,380.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 54,377 / 54,583

Support: 53,708 / 53,498

Dow rose on Friday, with modest gains, closing above 54,000 after weak payrolls.

Analyst View: Markets are still digesting the NFP report, if Dow sustains above 54,000, it may test record highs.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30,203 / 30,548

Support: 29,110 / 28,770

Nasdaq +1.3% on Friday, lifted by weak payrolls and SpaceX rally post lock‑up expiry.

Analyst View: NFP will keep driving volatility, focus on resistance near 29,900–30,000.

Bias: Mildly bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 65,677 / 66,224

Support: 64,006 / 63,317

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fall, weakening Federal Reserve rate‑hike forecasts. Bitcoin rose slightly yesterday, hitting late‑July highs, but closed flat for two days.

Analyst View: Momentum slowing, consolidating above MAs. A break above $66k is needed to break the range.

Bias: Mildly bullish

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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