U.S. Optimism on Iran Deal, Focus on UK GDP

ATFX Market Outlook – 16th April 2026 

U.S. Optimism on Iran Deal, Focus on UK GDP

(By ATFX Analyst Team)Summary•    The Trump administration said on Wednesday it was optimistic about reaching an agreement to end the war with Iran. Investors are assessing the possibility of peace talks resuming soon, which could help lift both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to fresh record highs. •    The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed that U.S. businesses and households are still adjusting to the Trump administration’s tariff policies, while also being hit by the surge in energy prices caused by the Iran war. •    Today’s focus is the UK’s February GDP data. The three-month GDP growth rate through February is expected to remain modest at 0.2% year-on-year, while February's monthly GDP is forecast at 0.1%. Markets will be watching for any downside surprise, as the data may reflect part of the impact from the Middle East war and could also influence expectations for the Bank of England’s policy outlook.

Global Market ReviewU.S. equities closed higher on Wednesday, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ending at record highs, supported by corporate earnings and growing optimism that U.S.-Iran negotiations may progress. This marks a strong rebound from March’s weakness, when tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, while the dollar index hovered near a six-week low and slipped slightly by the close, as hopes of a ceasefire in Iran reduced safe-haven demand.Gold prices reached their highest level since March 18 during the session before edging lower, as investors assessed the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran situation and their implications for the interest rate outlook. Spot gold fell 1% to $4,789.94 an ounce. Oil prices were steady as investors weighed the impact of the U.S. naval blockade on Iran against renewed hopes for further ceasefire talks.

Key Events Today:09:30 AU Unemployment Rate MAR **10:00 CN GDP YoY Q1 ** 10:00 CN Retail Sales & Industrial Production MAR ** 14:00 GB GDP MoM FEB ** 14:00 GB Manufacturing & Industrial Production YoY FEB ** 17:00 EU CPI Final YoY MAR **  20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 21:15 US Manufacturing & Industrial Production MoM MAR **  Tomorrow: 17:00 EU Balance of Trade FEB **

EURUSDResistance: 1.1835/1.1884Support: 1.1772/1.1723EURUSD edged up to 1.1799 as the dollar stayed soft while markets assessed the likelihood of renewed U.S.-Iran talks. Still, gains were modest as traders remained cautious about ECB policy and lingering energy-related inflation risks.

Analyst View: EURUSD is holding near the top of its recent range, with 1.1835–1.1884 now the next upside zone of focus. The structure remains constructive, but after the recent climb, gains may come more gradually than impulsively.

Bias: Hovering around the 1.1800 level   GBPUSDResistance: 1.3639/1.3677Support: 1.3516/1.3479GBPUSD was broadly flat after its recent rally, as softer dollar sentiment offset lingering caution about growth and inflation. Sterling held firm, but traders appeared reluctant to aggressively extend gains without clearer progress in diplomacy.

Analyst View: GBPUSD remains constructive, but the move has begun to flatten below 1.3639–1.3677. That keeps the broader recovery intact, though near-term gains may become more selective unless the pair can push cleanly into that upper zone.

 Bias: Cautious below 1.3600

USDJPYResistance: 159.04/159.26Support: 158.33/158.11USDJPY rose to 159.05 as the yen remained under pressure, with the pair still hovering near the 160 intervention zone. Markets are balancing softer dollar sentiment against elevated oil-linked inflation concerns and shifting BoJ expectations.

Trading defensively, with rebounds repeatedly capped below 159.04–159.26. Unless that area is regained, the pair may remain vulnerable to another drift towards the 158.11–158.33 support zone. Bias: Soft below 159

  US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)Resistance: 97.10/101.03Support: 87.00/84.37WTI slipped below $90 in Asia after settling near $91.39, as cautious optimism over renewed U.S.-Iran talks outweighed inventory support. Even so, fears of supply disruptions persist, while traffic through Hormuz remains severely restricted.

Analyst View: WTI is trying to stabilise after the sharp washout, but price remains below the former 97.10–101.03 supply area. Unless crude can reclaim that band, the market remains vulnerable to another leg lower towards 84.37–87.00.

Bias: Weak, with a cautious wait-and-see stance

  Spot Gold (XAU/USD)Resistance: 4886/4981Support: 4736/4643Spot SilverResistance: 82.36/85.72Support: 75.54/72.13Gold held near $4,812 after easing from a one-month high, as traders weighed hopes for diplomacy against uncertainty over rates. The metal remained supported overall, though profit-taking emerged after the recent surge and Fed timing remained unresolved.

Analyst View: Gold is still holding a constructive shape above $4,643, and the market remains within striking distance of $4,886. As long as pullbacks remain contained, the tone still favours another push higher rather than a deeper unwind.

Bias: Bullish while holding above $4,800 

Dow Jones Futures Resistance: 49080/49710Support: 47799/47159The Dow slipped 0.15%, lagging other U.S. benchmarks even as hopes for improved earnings and diplomacy underpinned sentiment. Investors appeared more selective, with upside capped by still-elevated oil prices and the need for fresh catalysts.

Analyst View: The Dow is firming around 47,799, which keeps the recovery bias intact for now. A push toward 49,080–49,710 would suggest the rebound still has room to run, while a failure to move above current levels may leave the move looking more like a stabilisation than an expansion.

Bias: High-level consolidation  NASDAQ 100Resistance: 26592/26887Support: 25634/25344The NAS100 rose 1.60% to another record close, supported by strong tech earnings sentiment and easing fears of a broader escalation in the Middle East. Risk appetite remained firm, though some strategists warned the rally may need fresh drivers soon.

 Analyst View: The NAS100 is pushing higher again, but the market is now moving into the 26,592–26,887 resistance zone, where the rally may start to work harder. The broader tone remains constructive, though the upside may become more selective at these higher levels. Bias: Bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)Resistance: 76397/77231Support: 73695/72846Bitcoin hovered just below $75,000 as hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran talks kept risk sentiment supported. The move was constructive, but traders remained hesitant to chase higher after the recent rally amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Analyst View: Bitcoin is still above the $72,846–$73,695 support band, so the broader tone remains constructive. However, unless price breaks cleanly into the $76,397–$77,231 range, this still looks like consolidation after strength rather than a fresh acceleration higher.

Bias: Mildly bullish

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