U.S. PPI Flat; Gold Dips on Profit-Taking Ahead of Retail Sales

ATFX Market Outlook - 14th August 2026

U.S. PPI Flat; Gold Dips on Profit-Taking Ahead of Retail Sales

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. July PPI unexpectedly held flat, further reducing market bets on a Fed rate hike in September. Tech stocks rebounded partially, lifting the S&P 500 to a record close. Gold was boosted intraday but adjusted lower on profit‑taking.

Today’s focus: U.S. July retail sales, forecast to rise 0.2% MoM. If data disappoint, economic concerns could weigh on the dollar and further weaken prospects for a Fed rate hike. Eurozone Q2 GDP revision is expected to remain at 1%.

Global Market Review

Softer PPI reinforced expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in September. Dow +0.13%, S&P 500 +0.65%, Nasdaq +0.8%.

Dollar index +0.02% to 99.96.

Gold briefly hit two‑month highs before profit‑taking drove a >1% decline.

WTI crude ‑1.6% on signs of weakening global demand and a sharp U.S. inventory build.

Key Events Today:

07:30 RBA Gov Bullock Speech *** 

17:00 EU GDP 2nd Est Q2 *** 

20:30 US Retail Sales JUL *** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel AUG ***  

Key Data and Events Coming Week (GMT+8)

Monday: JP GDP, CN Retail Sales & Industrial Production, CA CPI

Tuesday: GB Unemployment Rate, EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US Building Permits & Housing Starts, US Manufacturing & Industrial Production

Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, GB CPI & PPI, EU CPI

Thursday: FOMC Minutes, AU Unemployment Rate, GERMANY PPI, CA PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: AU/JP/EU/GB/US Manufacturing & Services& Composite PMI, JP CPI, GB Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1567 / 1.1581

Support: 1.1518 / 1.1503

EUR/USD rebounded slightly on Thursday on softer U.S. inflation. Focus now on Eurozone GDP and U.S. retail sales.

Analyst View: Mild rebound, but bulls lack an advantage. Needs to reclaim 1.1550 to break the downtrend channel.

Bias: Mild rebound

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3558 / 1.3591

Support: 1.3449 / 1.3416

GBP/USD hovered below 1.3500 on Thursday. UK growth beat expectations, but sterling fell for the second day.

Analyst View: Trading near channel bottom. Watch for support around 1.3450.

Bias: Pressured

USDJPY

Resistance: 160.05 / 160.89

Support: 158.73 / 158.06

USD/JPY edged higher on Thursday, hitting late‑July highs, but stayed in a narrow range.

Analyst View: Likely to consolidate. Bulls must hold above 159 to extend rebound.

Bias: Range trading

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 83.56 / 85.03

Support: 79.10 / 77.25

U.S. crude inventories rose most since Jan 2023; exports fell sharply. Oil retreated to ~$81.

Analyst View: Must hold $80 to preserve rebound potential; otherwise, risk toward $79.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4385 / 4414

Support: 4300 / 4263

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 66.57 / 67.54

Support: 62.03 / 61.04

Softer PPI reinforced bets against Fed hikes. Gold retreated on profit‑taking; silver also eased.

Analyst View: Gold hit weekly lows on Friday morning. Must hold above $4,300 to ease short‑term pressure.

Bias: Short‑term correction

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 54,170 / 54,377

Support: 53,498 / 53,295

Dow rebounded on Thursday after dipping to weekly lows, lifted by softer PPI.

Analyst View: Still in the low range. Needs to reclaim 54,000 to build bullish momentum.

Bias: Mild rebound

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30,551 / 30,984

Support: 29,869 / 29,442

Tech stocks rallied on Thursday on softer PPI. Nasdaq broke out to its highest since late June.

Analyst View: Breakout signals positive momentum. Holding above 30,000 could target prior record highs.

Bias: Improving momentum

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 64,569 / 65,125

Support: 62,762 / 62,216

Bitcoin stalled near $63,500 despite softer PPI. Producer inflation cooled more than expected, reinforcing bets on a Fed pause.

Analyst View: Still at two‑week lows. Needs to reclaim $64k to ease pressure; otherwise risks retest of lows.

Bias: Range trading

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