U.S. Stocks Await PCE Data & Nvidia Earnings

ATFX Market Outlook - 26th August 2026

U.S. Stocks Await PCE Data & Nvidia Earnings

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Iran announced it has resumed talks with neighbouring Oman to discuss management of the Strait of Hormuz. Market risk appetite improved slightly yesterday, but overall sentiment remains cautious ahead of today’s U.S. PCE inflation release.

Today’s focus: U.S. GDP revision and PCE Price Index will jointly validate the extent of economic cooling and disinflation. The PCE inflation gauge will directly shape market expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with Core PCE YoY expected to hold at 3.3%. The annualised QoQ GDP revision is forecast to remain at 1.5%. U.S. equities will also closely watch Nvidia’s earnings after market close, which will guide tech stocks and broader equity sentiment.

Global Market Review

Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday: Dow +0.3%, S&P 500 +0.32%, Nasdaq +0.66%. Tech stocks rebounded ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.

Dollar index edged lower; gold held steady after hitting a three‑month high.

Oil extended declines, with muted reaction to expanded U.S. sanctions on Iran. Investors judged economic pressure posed less supply risk than military escalation.

Key Events Today:

NVIDIA Earnings Report Release ***

09:30 AU CPI YoY JUL **

20:30 US GDP QoQ 2nd Est Q2 ***

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index YoY JUL ***

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL **

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

August 27 (GMT+8)

Jackson Hole Symposium ***

14:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence SEP **

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

22:00 US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1693 / 1.1737

Support: 1.1657 / 1.1623

EUR/USD rebounded from a four‑day low on Tuesday, trading near 1.1670 early Wednesday ahead of PCE data.

Analyst View: Still within the high range. U.S. inflation data may break the pattern: downside opens below 1.1650, upside tests above 1.1700.

Bias: Range watch

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3668 / 1.3701

Support: 1.3626 / 1.3591

GBP/USD extended its rally on Tuesday, marking the fifth straight gain, holding within the high range. Limited UK drivers shift focus to U.S. data.

Analyst View: Bullish bias intact, but 1.3655 capped gains for two days. Softer U.S. PCE would indirectly support GBP.

Bias: Range watch

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.32 / 159.52

Support: 158.91 / 158.70

USD/JPY rebounded toward four‑day highs on Tuesday but gave back gains, holding above 159.

Analyst View: Consolidating near key moving averages, mild momentum. U.S. data will determine breakout potential.

Bias: Range watch

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

Resistance: 82.10 / 83.00

Support: 78.30 / 77.17

Oil retreated as sanctions were seen as less disruptive than conflict escalation; talks in Oman on reopening the Strait added relief.

Analyst View: Fell to two‑week lows, below key averages. Bears dominant short‑term but holding $80 could ease pressure.

Bias: Pressured

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4707 / 4758

Support: 4603 / 4553

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 69.43 / 69.93

Support: 67.80 / 67.29

Gold neared $4,700 on Tuesday but failed to break through. Market paused ahead of U.S. inflation data.

Analyst View: Bullish momentum slowed; tonight’s data will decide whether the rally extends or a correction begins.

Bias: Bulls pausing

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53,996 / 54,379

Support: 53,155 / 52,779

U.S. indices rose on Tuesday, with the Dow up 160 points, aided by lower yields and a retreat in oil prices.

Analyst View: At one‑week highs above 53,700. Softer PCE could fuel breakout; stronger data may cap gains.

Bias: Mildly bullish

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,288 / 29,418

Support: 28,857 / 28,689

Nasdaq rebounded on Tuesday on tech recovery, but caution ahead of Nvidia earnings and PCE.

Analyst View: Closed below 20‑day MA. U.S. data will decide breakout or return to lows.

Bias: Weak rebound

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 80,413/81,496

Support: 76,750/75,345

Bitcoin steadied above $78,000 after briefly hitting a three‑month high Tuesday, supported by dollar weakness, fiscal concerns, and crypto inflows.

Analyst View: After the surge, BTC/USD gave back gains, showing caution ahead of PCE. Profit‑taking evident; tonight’s data will decide if highs hold.

Bias: Momentum slowing

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