US Threatens Unprecedented Iran Sanctions; Markets on Edge

ATFX Market Outlook - 24th August 2026

US Threatens Unprecedented Iran Sanctions; Markets on Edge

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. equities, gold, and crude oil all rose on Friday, but Bessent warned that Washington will impose the “toughest sanctions in history” on Iran, possibly announced Monday. As a result, market sentiment at the start of the week is expected to remain cautious.

Today’s focus: From key U.S. economic data and inflation indicators to Nvidia’s earnings as a global AI benchmark, and the annual Jackson Hole central bank symposium, multiple heavyweight events will dominate this week. With Monday’s data relatively light, markets are watching closely for any announcement of new U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Global Market Review

U.S. services sector posted its strongest growth in nearly two years, offsetting manufacturing weakness. Major indices closed higher last Friday but fell over the week: S&P 500 ‑1.43%, Nasdaq ‑2.05%, Dow ‑0.85%.

Treasury yields rose, and the dollar index edged higher last Friday.

Gold climbed to a three‑month high, marking its third consecutive weekly gain.

Oil prices rose after Trump threatened sanctions on Iran’s trade partners, fueling expectations of tighter supply in coming weeks.

Key Events Today:

20:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index JUL **

August 25 (GMT+8)

09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes ***

14:00 EU GERMANY GDP QoQ Final Q2 **

16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate AUG **

20:00 US Building Permits Final JUL **

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence AUG **

22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index AUG **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1737 / 1.1771

Support: 1.1657 / 1.1623

EUR/USD hovered near 1.1680 in Asia on Monday after three straight gains, confined to May’s narrow range.

Analyst View: Two days of tight-range trading at highs indicate momentum is pausing. 1.1711 remains key resistance; repeated failure could trigger minor pullback.

Bias: High‑level consolidation

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3701 / 1.3734

Support: 1.3626 / 1.3591

Despite disappointing UK retail sales, GBP/USD held above 1.3600, extending a three‑day rally, opening lower Monday but rebounding.

Analyst View: Bulls continue to print higher highs, technically opening space for further upside channel expansion.

Bias: Mildly bullish

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.05 / 159.42

Support: 158.23 / 157.87

USD/JPY briefly reached 159 last Friday but failed to hold above it. Rising Japan CPI supported JPY.

Analyst View: Bulls are trying to escape last week’s low range but are capped at 159. Likely to consolidate within range.

Bias: Range trading

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

Resistance: 86.66 / 87.16

Support: 84.56 / 84.07

Oil hovered above $86 last Friday as Trump threatened sanctions on Iran’s trade partners. Prices eased on Monday morning.

Analyst View: After last week’s rally, profit‑taking emerged. Market awaits sanction news for fresh volatility. $88 remains key resistance.

Bias: Watchful

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4658 / 4675

Support: 4589 / 4568

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 69.93 / 70.43

Support: 68.44 / 67.80

Treasury buybacks boosted gold above $4,600, the highest in three months.

Analyst View: Gold extended gains above $4,600, approaching May highs. Bulls cautious, watching U.S.–Iran tensions.

Bias: Mildly bullish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53,531 / 53,996

Support: 52,779 / 52,402

U.S. equities rebounded last Friday; PMI hit a four‑year high. Dow bounced from early‑August lows.

Analyst View: Needs follow‑through above 53,500 to strengthen momentum. Watch U.S.–Iran tensions as a potential cap.

Bias: Mild rebound

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,489 / 29,634

Support: 29,203 / 29,021

Nasdaq rose modestly last Friday as Treasuries stabilised, though tech was mixed.

Analyst View: Still stuck in early‑August low range. Must break 29,500 to ease pressure; otherwise risks retesting 29,200.

Bias: Weak trading

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 80,332 / 82,759

Support: 74,990 / 72,643

Bitcoin climbed to $78,000, one of its best weekly performances in years, driven by a weaker dollar, ETF inflows, and short covering.

Analyst View: After the surge, BTC/USD locked in a tight 75,500–79,500 range, posting lower highs. Bulls are pausing ahead of the $80k test.

Bias: Range consolidation

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