USDPJY, AUDUSD, GBPUSD

Fed speakers & ADP data → USDJPY

With the US government shutdown now in its second month, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release is unlikely, even if the shutdown ends soon.  In the meantime, investors will focus on the ADP employment figures and ISM PMIs for economic signals. Several Fed officials, including Vice Chair Jefferson and Governor Waller, are scheduled to speak this week, offering clues on policy direction after last week’s rate cut. Chair Powell hinted it may be the final cut for 2025, citing economic uncertainty.

USDJPY is hovering just below the eight-month high of 154.43, with potential to test the 78.6% Fibonacci extension level at 154.80. A rally could reach the 154.70 barrier, but a downside correction may be brewing as the RSI flattens near 70. Key support levels include 153.20 and the 61.8% Fibonacci at 151.65.

RBA meeting → AUDUSD

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep rates steady at 3.60% on Tuesday for a third consecutive meeting, with markets pricing in a 94% chance of no change. A stronger-than-expected Q3 inflation report has pushed rate cut expectations into mid-2026, despite rising unemployment and surging house prices. The RBA is likely to maintain a cautious tone, postponing any serious policy shifts until December or beyond. A slightly hawkish stance could support the Australian dollar, especially amid improving US-China trade relations.

AUDUSD slipped after encountering strong resistance near the long-term downtrend line around 0.6600. The pair is currently fluctuating between the 20- and 50-day SMAs, with further losses potentially targeting the 0.6520 support. Below that, the medium-term uptrend line at 0.6470 may act as a turning point.

BoE rate decision → GBPUSD

The Bank of England faces a finely balanced decision at Thursday’s MPC meeting, with a 70% probability of keeping rates unchanged at 4%. Softer inflation and rising unemployment have revived rate-cut speculation, though most economists expect a hold, pending clarity from the November 26 budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to unveil significant tax hikes—potentially targeting property, pensions, and income tax, to address a £20 to £50 billion fiscal gap. Concerns over the budget’s contractionary impact have weighed on sterling, which has underperformed against major currencies.

GBPUSD plunged to a six-and-a-half-month low below 1.3100 on Friday but failed to close below the key 1.3140 level. Further declines could open the path toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2940, taken from the 1.2100–1.3788 upleg. A rebound off 1.3140 could trigger a bullish correction toward 1.3260, near the 200-day SMA. The MACD and RSI continue to suggest downside pressure.