U.S.–Iran Conflict Rekindles Concerns, Fed Minutes Reinforce Hawkish Tone?

ATFX Market Outlook - 8th July 2026

U.S.–Iran Conflict Rekindles Concerns, Fed Minutes Reinforce Hawkish Tone?

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

According to Reuters, three oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. military to launch new airstrikes against Iran on Tuesday and revoke Iran’s oil export waivers. The latest developments have shaken confidence in the fragile ceasefire agreement.

Today’s focus: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25 bps to 2.5%, its first hike in more than three years, while signaling the possibility of further increases. Early Thursday (GMT+8), attention turns to the Fed’s June meeting minutes for guidance on monetary policy outlook and whether they reinforce a hawkish stance.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities fell Tuesday, led by weakness in semiconductor stocks. Micron and other chipmakers dropped, deepening doubts about the sustainability of Wall Street’s AI‑driven rally. The Dow fell 0.25%, S&P 500 lost 0.45%, and Nasdaq dropped 1.16%.

U.S. Treasury yields rose, while the dollar firmed slightly after several days of declines, supported by Middle East tensions. Gold fell 1.4% as investors focused on escalating hostilities in the region. Oil surged more than 5% on renewed supply concerns.

Key Events Today:

10:00 RBNZ  Interest Rate Decision ***  

11:00 RBNZ Press Conference ***  

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

July 9（GMT+8）

02:00 FOMC Minutes ***

09:30 CN CPI & PPI JUN **  

19:30 ECB Minutes ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

22:00 US Existing Home Sales JUN **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1438 / 1.1456

Support: 1.1382 / 1.1364

EUR/USD weakened Tuesday, retreating to 1.1410 as Middle East tensions lifted dollar demand.

Analyst View: Testing below the 10‑day MA this morning; a close lower would confirm short‑term correction toward sub‑1.1400 levels. Watch 1.1382/1.1364 support and Fed minutes guidance.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3414 / 1.3461

Support: 1.3302 / 1.3264

Sterling ended its eight‑day rally Tuesday, slipping below 1.3370 after briefly testing 1.3400.

Analyst View: Retreat from mid‑June highs; 10‑ and 20‑day MAs near 1.3300 act as key support. Focus on U.S.–Iran tensions and Fed minutes.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

USDJPY

Resistance: 162.84 / 163.11

Support: 161.94 / 161.66

USD/JPY held near 162.00 Tuesday, with yen still at 40‑year lows. Traders remain alert to possible Japanese intervention.

Analyst View: Dollar demand lifted the pair higher this morning, targeting last week’s highs. Momentum remains cautious at elevated levels.

Bias: Mildly bullish

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

Resistance: 73.92 / 75.23

Support: 69.68 / 68.34

Oil surged Tuesday after U.S. strikes on Iran and the revocation of oil waivers reignited concerns over the ceasefire.

Analyst View: Prices broke above the 10‑day MA, improving short‑term signals. Without fresh escalation, upside momentum may be capped near the 20‑day MA.

Bias: Short‑term rebound

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4148 / 4180

Support: 4049 / 4008

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 61.35 / 62.72

Support: 58.30 / 56.91

Gold fell for a second day Tuesday, pressured by rising yields and a stronger dollar. Silver dropped below $60.

Analyst View: Gold is under pressure from geopolitics and technicals, testing support near $4,080. Less hawkish Fed minutes could help stabilize prices.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53,410 / 53,612

Support: 52,536 / 52,337

U.S. equities fell Tuesday as oil‑driven inflation fears weighed. The Dow retreated after briefly hitting new highs, ending its five‑day rally.

Analyst View: Back below 53,000 but still elevated. Fed minutes will be key; a less hawkish tone could cushion downside.

Bias: High‑level consolidation

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,597 / 29,770

Support: 29,082 / 28,866

Semiconductor and storage stocks slumped Tuesday; SpaceX fell over 6%, Tesla dropped 4%, while Meta gained 2.55%.

Analyst View: Nasdaq broke below key moving averages, approaching late‑June lows. Watch support near 28,890 and Fed minutes guidance.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 64,407 / 65,564

Support: 62,578 / 61,655

Cryptos fell Tuesday after U.S. strikes on Iran and oil waiver revocation. ETF outflows add pressure to cryptocurrencies.

Analyst View: BTC/USD ended its rally, extending losses this morning. Key support lies at the 10‑ and 20‑day MA cluster around $61,800–62,000.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

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