Weekly Technical Outlook – Oil, US500, BTCUSD

Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance  -->  Oil

Oil prices are stabilising after a rebound as traders turn cautious following a weekend flare‑up in Middle East tensions, casting doubts on peace talks. Renewed strains and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz risk reintroducing volatility after the recent unwinding of conflict‑related risk premiums over the past two weeks. The US said it seized an Iranian cargo vessel attempting to breach its blockade, while Tehran vowed retaliation, reviving fears of escalation.

With the two‑week ceasefire set to expire on Tuesday, focus has shifted to whether the US and Iran can restart talks after initial negotiations failed. Iran has signalled it will not take part in a second round of discussions, keeping geopolitical risks elevated. Meanwhile, intermittent shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain energy flows, lending support to prices. That said, WTI oil remains under pressure following a sharp pullback from a one‑month high near 118.45 to a one‑month low around 81.78, as markets increasingly shift back toward pricing flow normalisation rather than disruption risk.

From a technical perspective, oil has rebounded toward the 90.00 level, stabilising after a steep decline that briefly pushed prices below the 50‑day SMA near 81.78. A break above 95.15 could accelerate upside momentum, bringing the 20‑day SMA near 97.92 into focus.

Earnings season, Iran updates --> US 500

Despite – and partly because of – a week of shifting headlines leaning cautiously optimistic on Iran peace talks, the US500 pushed to fresh record high of 7,147 on Friday, marking a third consecutive week of gains and a 4.5% weekly advance. The rally was supported by expectations of strong Q1 earnings and renewed AI optimism. Earnings from Tesla on Wednesday and Intel on Thursday headline a busy calendar, with Intel hitting its highest intraday level since 2000 late last week.

That said, headwinds persist. Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated as markets navigate a familiar cycle of escalation and pause ahead of Tuesday’s ceasefire expiry to the ongoing Mideast conflict – now in its eighth week. Key US data, including retail sales on Tuesday and the University of Michigan sentiment survey on Friday, should offer insight into consumer resilience but are likely to be overshadowed by earnings and Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair confirmation hearing on Tuesday.

Signs of resilience in US corporates – particularly in AI‑linked and tech sectors – may sustain the broader uptrend. While the index has retreated modestly from record highs after eleven straight positive sessions, it still hovers in record territory just above the 7,000 psychological level. That said, with momentum indicators flashing overbought after a three‑week advance, near‑term consolidation appears likely before any renewed push higher.

Japan CPI --> USDJPY

USDJPY enters the week with renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz threatening to reverse Friday’s oil slump and reintroduce upside risks via higher energy prices. That said, persistent intervention risks from the BoJ, a stronger US dollar, and diminishing expectations for a BoJ rate hike later this month continue to weigh on the yen, leaving USDJPY supported below last week’s highs.

In Japan, April flash PMI data may offer insight into the economic impact of the Iran conflict, though such releases rarely move markets. The national CPI report for March, due Friday, is also expected to have a limited impact. Any upside surprise that revives BoJ tightening bets could trigger a long‑overdue USDJPY pullback. However, renewed geopolitical risks and the pair’s broader technical structure argue traders remain alert to renewed upside pressure.

Technically, USDJPY is consolidating below 159.00, where the 20‑day SMA sits. Recent price action suggests buyers continue to step in on meaningful dips, forming a bull‑flag‑like structure that warns of a potential resumption of the prior uptrend. That said, momentum signals remain subdued and flat in the mid‑ranges, keeping confirmation pending.